With His Regional Weight Compromised, Mohammad Bin Zayed Trumps the Russian Card

1. Summary: Obsessed with aspirations of greatness and regional dominance United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) has been put in his place thanks to the reconciliation deals between Saudi Arabia and both Iran and Qatar. MBZ has been trying to disrupt the status quo by trying to invoke Russian involvement in regional conflicts, with a focus on the Persian Gulf in particular. MBZ is a man who has played well on the differences and disagreements between his neighbors, and as such, finds himself unable to do what he does best: claim to be the moderator and negotiator on behalf of everyone. Nonetheless, MBZ’s vast oil wealth and his relentless desire to become the region’s “top dog” means that he is not going anywhere, anytime soon.

2. United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) flew to Russia to meet President Putin on 16 June 2023. According to an official statement by the UAE, Ukraine was the meeting’s main subject. A short video distributed by Russia’s state-owned TV, Russia Today (RT), showed a part of the meeting [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xtj1tJWkkIc]. In the video, MBZ is showing strolling with Putin telling him, “We have received a lot of threats because of the Russian situation but thank God we held our ground despite the Westerners.” RT, the UAE’s media, and social media accounts all celebrated the video as evidence of MBZ’s “strength in the face of America and the West,” alleging that the UAE was close to negotiating a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine. Nonetheless, JaFaJ sources have confirmed that Ukraine was just one of the issues discussed, and was by far, not the main topic of discussion.

3. JaFaJ sources in the UAE have confirmed that the top issue discussed was the Chinese-brokered peace deal between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran. The sources reported that MBZ is displeased with the peace between Iran and KSA because it “takes away his position as one of the Persian Gulf’s key players.” The source added that “MBZ and the UAE have the closest ties to Iran amongst all Arab states, and that for more than a decade, he was the go-to guy to negotiate with Iranians, allowing him to play the ‘beasts whisperer’ role.” Therefore, “peace between Iran and the Saudis means that MBZ no longer has any regional significance.”

4. Cultivated JaFaJ sources have confirmed that MBZ wanted President Putin to apply pressure on the Chinese, hopefully pushing them into a position where they “abandoned the peace deal they negotiated between the Saudis and the Iranians.” The source reported that MBZ warned Putin of “Opening the gates wide enough to allow the Chinese to meddle in Middle East affairs.” He also warned that this could come at Russia’s expense and access to the Middle East region.

5. A Western source who sustains good ties with MBZ’s inner circle of advisers has reported to JaFaJ that MBZ “is trying to push Putin into action against the Saudi-Iranian peace by calling in a favor, specifically reminding President Putin of what he has done for him in Syria.” [COMMENT: The favor he mentioned was the reintegration of Assad to the Arab League under UAE’s patronage Syria’s Dictator Bashar Assad is closely aligned with Russia and cooperated with the UAE. They both were working to have Assad readmitted back into the Arab league. The UAE took the lead in reintegrating Assad, who regained his seat at the Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia in May 2023. Help came in the form of diplomatic pressure and financial bribes paid for by the UAE to different Arab countries for their supportive vote. END COMMENT]

6. A source who has served as a Western advisor to the Government of UAE describes MBZ’s status quo as “convoluted.” The source added, “I don’t think he (MBZ) understands how things work now, he lacks international experience.” The source added, “For example, Putin has an alliance with China, and he will not disrupt that alliance or China’s role in Iran, Bin Zayed just doesn’t understand this.” The source continued by saying that “MBZ overlooks the fact that China supports Russia’s military control over Syria, MBZ just doesn’t understand his regional role, especially the concept that you cannot buy influence.” The source continued by saying that “For some reason, MBZ thinks of world politics as the next mega mansion or European football club he is going to purchase, and he has been failing miserably.”

7. The source concluded by saying that, “without tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and Saudi Arabia and Qatar, he has no real value as a broker and this alone, nullifies the core of his foreign policy, a policy that he is building on conflicts between his neighbors.” In other words, “His old tricks no longer work.”

MBZ’S Foreign Policy Gurus
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8. The Western source continued his criticism of MBZ’s foreign policy by claiming that “His entire policy is built on the backs of two Palestinians.” The first is Mohammad Dahlan. Dahlan is a former senior PLO official who has lived in exile in the UAE for close to two decades. According to sources, Dahlan is MBZ’s foreign policy “go-to guy.” The source continued by saying that “Dahlan is good at internal security and running a police state, but he does not know much about international politics.” The second Palestinian the source referred to is a naturalized UAE citizen named Zaki Nusseibeh. This advisor was born in Jerusalem to a small family known for its association with Western governments. Nusseibeh has been MBZ’s trusted advisor for over a decade. Supporting his trust, MBZ has appointed Nusseibeh’s daughter, Lana Nusseibeh, as UAE’s ambassador to the United Nations. The source describes both men as “Smart and very efficient with internal politics but not necessarily foreign policy,” but “It’s time that MBZ seek other opinions to help him accept his shrinking regional role.”

Conclusion
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9. The normalization between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran and the reconciliation between the Saudis and Qataris have disqualified MBZ as the self-styled key regional player who has been playing shrewdly on regional differences and disputes over the past decade. Many have recognized that MBZ’s tricks have expired and that he has been erased from the decision-making process, making him a hated man by the neighbors thanks to his manipulative tactics and blackmail in a region where leaders have long memories. Today, MBZ has very few allies, and the ones he does have are themselves fragile. [COMMENT: Prime examples are both the Hashemite rulers of Jordan and Libyan warlord, Haftar. END COMMENT]. As a result, MBZ is in no position to challenge anyone or to exert any significant political leverage. On the other hand, the more isolated MBZ feels, the more likely he will navigate regional politics by “stirring the pot,” causing more trouble for himself and others. One thing is certain from these actions: MBZ is not likely to make himself content with the wealth his country is blessed with and avoid getting into trouble. As a result, it appears more likely that the Middle East is going to witness signs of despair and reckless moves by a man who has everything yet is hungry for influence and is burdened by unrealistic aspirations, his role in history and his obsessive ambitions of power.