WHO WILL SHAPE THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE DECADE AHEAD?
By JaFaJ Intelligence
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
For much of the twentieth century, power in the Middle East was measured using familiar metrics: the size of an army, the quantity of oil beneath the ground, or the strategic importance of a country’s geography. Those indicators remain important, but they no longer provide a complete picture of regional influence. The Middle East is entering an era in which technological innovation, economic diversification, artificial intelligence, logistics, diplomacy, legislative capacity, and scientific research increasingly determine which governments shape regional events.¹
The wars in Gaza, the Red Sea, Syria, Yemen, and the continuing strategic competition involving Iran have reinforced an important lesson. Military power remains essential, but it is no longer sufficient. Governments capable of integrating military capability with advanced technology, resilient institutions, diversified economies, and international partnerships possess a growing strategic advantage.²
This assessment introduces the JaFaJ Middle East Power Index (MEPI), an analytical framework designed to evaluate comprehensive national influence rather than a single dimension of state power. Instead of asking which nation possesses the largest military or the highest gross domestic product, MEPI asks a broader question:
Which countries possess the greatest ability to influence the political, economic, technological, and security environment of the Middle East during the coming decade?
THE NINE PILLARS OF MODERN POWER
The traditional concept of national power has expanded significantly during the past two decades. Contemporary governments compete simultaneously across multiple domains that reinforce one another.
Military capability remains the foundation of national security and deterrence. However, sustained military effectiveness increasingly depends upon advanced research, industrial production, intelligence integration, cybersecurity, and technological innovation. The International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that modern military competitiveness increasingly reflects the ability to integrate these capabilities rather than simply field large standing forces.³
Economic strength likewise extends beyond national income. Diversified economies with robust financial systems, advanced manufacturing, resilient supply chains, and strong investment climates provide governments with greater flexibility during crises while supporting long-term modernization. The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly emphasized that economic diversification remains a central strategic objective for many Middle Eastern states as they prepare for an evolving global economy.⁴
Diplomatic influence has become an increasingly important instrument of national power. Countries capable of mediating disputes, building regional coalitions, and maintaining constructive relationships with competing global powers often exercise influence disproportionate to their geographic size. Qatar’s mediation efforts, Saudi Arabia’s expanding diplomatic role, and the United Arab Emirates’ growing international partnerships illustrate this trend.⁵
Technology has emerged as another decisive factor. Artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, biotechnology, semiconductor research, and digital infrastructure increasingly influence military capability, industrial productivity, healthcare, finance, and education. Governments investing consistently in scientific research today are likely to possess greater strategic flexibility tomorrow.⁶
The final dimensions include energy, maritime logistics, and legislative capacity. Energy continues to shape international markets, while ports, transportation networks, and logistics hubs increasingly determine economic competitiveness. At the same time, governments are using legislation, industrial policy, investment regulation, and technology governance as strategic tools that influence innovation, foreign investment, and national resilience.⁷
THE 2026 JAFAJ MIDDLE EAST POWER RANKINGS
- Israel
Israel ranks first because it demonstrates sustained strength across nearly every category evaluated by MEPI. The country combines advanced military capabilities, world-leading innovation, cybersecurity, biotechnology, artificial intelligence research, and a diversified knowledge-based economy. Despite limited natural resources and a relatively small population, Israel consistently converts scientific research into military capability and commercial success. This integration of universities, private industry, government institutions, and defense research creates one of the region’s most comprehensive strategic ecosystems.⁸
- Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia occupies the second position because of its ambitious transformation under Vision 2030. Long recognized as an energy superpower, the Kingdom is investing heavily in logistics, tourism, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, renewable energy, and scientific research. Combined with its leadership within OPEC and growing diplomatic engagement, Saudi Arabia’s modernization program represents one of the region’s most significant strategic developments.⁹
- United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates continues to demonstrate that strategic influence is not determined by population alone. Dubai and Abu Dhabi have developed into global centers for logistics, aviation, finance, technology, and investment. Government support for artificial intelligence, renewable energy, commercial space activities, and advanced digital infrastructure has positioned the UAE as one of the Middle East’s leading innovation hubs.¹⁰
- Türkiye
Türkiye maintains influence through its diversified industrial economy, expanding indigenous defense industry, strategic geography, and active foreign policy. Ankara’s position at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East enhances its importance in regional trade, energy transit, and security affairs. Its growing defense manufacturing sector further strengthens long-term strategic autonomy.¹¹
- Iran
Despite years of international sanctions, Iran remains one of the region’s principal strategic actors. Indigenous missile production, unmanned aerial systems, regional security partnerships, and asymmetric military doctrine continue to provide Tehran with significant influence. Economic constraints remain substantial, but Iran demonstrates that military and geopolitical influence are not determined solely by economic performance.¹²
- Egypt
Egypt’s strategic importance derives from a combination of geography, population, military capability, and control of the Suez Canal. As one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, the canal remains central to global commerce. Egypt also continues to play an important diplomatic role within both the Arab world and Africa.¹³
- Qatar
Qatar has developed influence disproportionate to its size through liquefied natural gas exports, sovereign wealth investments, and diplomacy. The country’s repeated role as an intermediary in regional negotiations demonstrates how financial resources and diplomatic credibility can amplify national influence beyond traditional military measures.¹⁴
8–10. Jordan, Oman, and Kuwait
Jordan, Oman, and Kuwait complete the top ten. Each contributes to regional stability through different strengths. Jordan maintains close security partnerships and institutional stability. Oman has cultivated a long-standing reputation for neutrality and mediation. Kuwait continues to exercise financial influence through sovereign investment while maintaining an important role within the Gulf Cooperation Council.¹⁵
FIVE TRENDS THAT WILL DEFINE THE NEXT DECADE
The rankings reveal several broader trends reshaping the Middle East.
First, technology is becoming as important as energy. Countries investing heavily in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, biotechnology, and advanced manufacturing are positioning themselves for long-term strategic advantage.
Second, the Gulf states are becoming comprehensive powers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are no longer relying exclusively on petroleum exports. Both are investing aggressively in logistics, scientific research, tourism, finance, and digital infrastructure.
Third, diplomacy has become a strategic capability. Mediation, coalition building, and international partnerships increasingly determine regional influence. Small states can now shape major geopolitical developments through diplomacy rather than military force alone.
Fourth, maritime security remains central to regional stability. The Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal continue to influence global trade, energy markets, and military planning. Governments capable of protecting these routes—or disrupting them—possess considerable strategic leverage.¹⁶
Finally, institutions matter. Countries with effective governance, transparent regulation, and long-term national planning consistently outperform states relying primarily on natural resources or military power. Institutional resilience increasingly determines whether governments can convert national wealth into enduring strategic influence.
JAFAJ ASSESSMENT
The Middle East is undergoing a structural transformation.
Military power remains indispensable, but it is no longer the sole determinant of regional leadership. The countries most likely to shape the region during the coming decade will be those capable of integrating defense capability with technological innovation, scientific research, diversified economies, effective governance, and sustained diplomatic engagement.
The inaugural JaFaJ Middle East Power Index suggests that the balance of regional influence is becoming broader, more technologically driven, and increasingly institutional. Oil wealth alone will not determine tomorrow’s leaders. Neither will military power in isolation.
Instead, the decisive question is whether governments can convert today’s resources into tomorrow’s capabilities.
The map of the Middle East has not changed.
The map of influence has.
FOOTNOTES
- International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 2026 (London: Routledge for IISS, 2026).
- IISS, The Military Balance 2026; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), SIPRI Yearbook 2026 (Stockholm: SIPRI, 2026).
- IISS, The Military Balance 2026.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (Washington, DC: IMF, 2026).
- International Crisis Group, Middle East and North Africa Reports; IMF, Regional Economic Outlook.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), OECD AI Policy Observatory; World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Global Innovation Index.
- World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Review of Maritime Transport.
- IISS, The Military Balance 2026; WIPO, Global Innovation Index.
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030; IMF, Regional Economic Outlook.
- World Bank, Connecting to Compete: Logistics Performance Index; OECD AI Policy publications.
- IISS, The Military Balance 2026; SIPRI, Yearbook 2026.
- IISS, The Military Balance 2026; IMF country assessments for Iran.
- World Bank, World Development Indicators; Suez Canal Authority annual reports.
- IMF, Regional Economic Outlook; QatarEnergy publications.
- World Bank governance indicators; GCC official publications.
- UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2025.
REFERENCES
- International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Military Balance 2026. London: Routledge for IISS, 2026.
- International Monetary Fund. Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. Washington, DC: IMF, 2026.
- International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2025. Paris: IEA, 2025.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD AI Policy Observatory. Paris: OECD.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Main Science and Technology Indicators. Paris: OECD.
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SIPRI Yearbook 2026. Stockholm: SIPRI, 2026.
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Review of Maritime Transport. Geneva: UNCTAD.
- World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
- World Intellectual Property Organization. Global Innovation Index. Geneva: WIPO.