JAFAJ ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

MENA+1 MARKET UPDATE

WEEKLY EQUITY MARKETS • SEPTEMBER 14–18, 2026

September 20, 2026

Analytical market brief. Not investment advice.

IN-A-NUTSHELL

MENA+1 equity markets ended the week divided between geopolitical risk, elevated oil prices, higher interest rates and continuing evidence of domestic market resilience.

The central market story was not a uniform regional selloff. Instead, investors differentiated among markets according to their exposure to energy infrastructure, shipping, domestic demand, financial conditions and individual corporate developments.

Abu Dhabi was the week’s notable Gulf strength, with its benchmark gaining 1.1% on Friday, its largest intraday increase in more than six weeks. International Holding Company rose 4.8%, PureHealth gained 4.7% and Lulu Retail advanced 2.6%. Dubai moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.5%, while Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties declined.

Saudi Arabia remained highly sensitive to energy and security developments. The Tadawul All Share Index closed September 17 at 10,777.94, essentially flat on the day and down modestly across the week. Earlier in the week, Saudi equities reacted to attacks affecting energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

Egypt demonstrated relative market resilience after an early-week decline. The EGX30 fell 1.56% on September 14 but recovered during the week, gaining 1.23% on September 17.

Türkiye was the major market stress story. The BIST 100 fell 5.54% on September 16, rebounded 2.95% on September 17 and then declined another 1.67% on September 18. The week’s volatility was linked to turmoil involving domestic investment funds and withdrawals.

Oil remained a critical regional market variable. Brent closed Friday at approximately $104.87 per barrel, after having traded near four-month highs during the week.

MENA+1 markets are trading the interaction of oil, security, interest rates, liquidity and domestic fundamentals—not simply the direction of crude prices.

1. THE WEEK’S MARKET MAP

Market	Latest Close	Latest Daily Move	Weekly Character
Saudi Arabia — TASI	10,777.94	-0.02%	Volatile / defensive
Abu Dhabi — FADGI	10,271.76	+1.09%	Strong
Dubai — DFMGI	5,957.23	-0.49%	Mixed
Qatar — QSI	9,659.01	+0.22%	Mixed
Oman — MSX30	7,603.23	+0.70%	Positive
Bahrain — BAX	1,924.03	-0.30%	Slightly weaker
Egypt — EGX30	55,498.72	+1.23%*	Rebound
Morocco — MASI	17,592.46	-2.01%	Weak
Tunisia — TUNINDEX	19,021.62	-0.12%	Stable
Türkiye — BIST 100	13,284.42	-1.67%	High volatility

*Latest cited Egypt close available in the market-data series is September 17.

2. SAUDI ARABIA: ENERGY SECURITY DOMINATES

The Saudi market remained one of the clearest examples of the relationship between equity valuations and physical energy infrastructure.

The TASI closed September 17 at 10,777.94, essentially unchanged on the day. Earlier in the week, the index was pressured by attacks affecting Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

The market response was highly selective.

3. ABU DHABI: CORPORATE FUNDAMENTALS BREAKING THROUGH

Abu Dhabi produced one of the week’s strongest Gulf-market performances.

The benchmark rose 1.1% on September 18, its largest intraday increase in more than six weeks. International Holding Company gained 4.8%, PureHealth rose 4.7%, and Lulu Retail increased 2.6%.

This is analytically important because the gains were concentrated in healthcare and consumer sectors, rather than being purely an oil-price reaction.

The Abu Dhabi market therefore provides an example of the diversification thesis developed in the MENA+1 GDP report: regional geopolitical risk can coexist with strong company-specific and domestic-sector performance.

4. DUBAI: MIXED SIGNALS

Dubai’s DFM General Index closed September 18 at 5,957.23, down 0.49% on the day. The index had gained during the preceding two sessions before Friday’s reversal.

The decline was concentrated in major companies:

Emirates NBD: -2.4%
Emaar Properties: -1.5%

Meanwhile, Talabat rose 2.6% after recommending a first-half dividend of 2.660 fils per share.

Dubai therefore continues to illustrate a different market structure from Saudi Arabia: real estate + banking + consumer services + logistics + technology.

5. EGYPT: RECOVERY AFTER EARLY-WEEK PRESSURE

Egypt’s EGX30 began the week under pressure, falling 1.56% on September 14.

It subsequently stabilized: September 14 -1.56%; September 15 +0.21%; September 16 -0.16%; September 17 +1.23%.

The September 17 close was 55,498.72.

Commercial International Bank was among the stocks supporting the market during the September 17 advance.

Egypt is particularly important for the MENA+1 series because its equity market needs to be read alongside inflation + currency conditions + interest rates + foreign-exchange availability + tourism + remittances + economic growth.

6. TÜRKİYE: THE WEEK’S MAJOR MARKET STRESS EVENT

Türkiye deserves special attention.

The BIST 100 moved sharply during the week: September 14 -1.60%; September 15 -2.41%; September 16 -5.54%; September 17 +2.95%; September 18 -1.67%.

The September 18 close was 13,284.42.

The volatility was associated with severe stress involving Turkish investment funds. The Financial Times reported that authorities moved to liquidate 131 funds following redemption problems involving approximately $17 billion in investments, while Reuters reported that the market turmoil produced the BIST 100’s worst weekly performance since March 2025.

Not every MENA market decline is caused by geopolitics or oil. Domestic financial-market structure can be equally important.

7. MOROCCO: A CLEAR WEEKLY DECLINE

The Moroccan All Shares Index fell throughout much of the week.

The MASI moved: September 14 -1.16%; September 15 -1.14%; September 16 -1.13%; September 17 -0.17%; September 18 -2.01%.

It closed Friday at 17,592.46.

Morocco is particularly useful for the MENA+1 framework because its market is less directly tied to Gulf energy production and more closely connected to European demand + manufacturing + tourism + financial services + domestic consumption + agriculture.

8. OMAN, QATAR AND BAHRAIN

Oman’s MSX30 closed September 18 at approximately 7,603, with the exchange showing a 0.70% daily increase.

Qatar’s index was around 9,659, up 0.22%.

Bahrain’s main index was around 1,924, down 0.30%.

The broader pattern was moderate rather than extreme movement across these smaller Gulf markets.

These markets remain particularly sensitive to oil and gas prices, shipping conditions, U.S. interest rates, regional liquidity, foreign capital flows and domestic banking conditions.

8A. REGIONAL COVERAGE: THE MARKETS OUTSIDE THE CORE GULF

A complete MENA+1 market picture requires more than the largest Gulf exchanges. The smaller and frontier exchanges do not carry the same liquidity or international-investor depth, but they can provide important signals about domestic credit, tourism, services, reconstruction, consumer demand and country-specific risk. Where a market did not trade on September 18, JAFAJ uses the latest available session rather than forcing a same-day comparison.

Market	Exchange / Universe	Latest Reference	JAFAJ Interpretation
Kuwait	Boursa Kuwait	Separate rate/liquidity signal	The Kuwaiti dinar is not part of the same dollar-peg transmission mechanism as most Gulf currencies; this makes Kuwait a useful monetary-policy comparator.
Jordan	Amman Stock Exchange	4,124.65; +0.32% Sept. 17	Financials and services remain important; domestic credit, tourism and regional stability are key transmission channels.
Palestine	Al-Quds	705.49; +0.16% Sept. 17	A small, highly distinctive market whose movements should be interpreted alongside political, mobility, banking and liquidity conditions.
Iraq	Iraq Stock Exchange	Separate / lower-liquidity market	Oil revenues dominate the macro backdrop, while banking, telecommunications and domestic investment provide the principal listed-market channels.
Algeria	Algiers Stock Exchange	Separate / limited-liquidity market	The listed market is small relative to the economy; the analytical signal is therefore more structural than index-driven.
Lebanon	Beirut Stock Exchange	Separate / limited-liquidity market	Market data should be treated cautiously because banking-system, currency and sovereign-finance conditions dominate the investment environment.
Libya	Limited listed-market signal	Not comparable with core exchanges	Oil production, security conditions and institutional fragmentation are more useful weekly indicators than a conventional equity index.
Yemen	Limited listed-market signal	Not comparable with core exchanges	Security, fuel availability, shipping and humanitarian/economic conditions are more informative than equity-market performance.
Syria	Limited listed-market signal	Not comparable with core exchanges	The conventional listed-equity signal is limited; sanctions, reconstruction, currency and trade conditions are more relevant.

The regional implication is important: MENA+1 should distinguish between (1) deep, liquid institutional markets; (2) smaller but functioning national exchanges; and (3) economies where equity-market data are too limited to serve as a reliable weekly barometer. This prevents the largest exchanges from unintentionally becoming a proxy for the entire region.

9. INTEREST RATES ARE BACK IN THE MARKET

The other major macroeconomic development was monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, and several Gulf central banks followed because of their dollar-linked exchange-rate arrangements.

Saudi Arabia raised its repo and reverse-repo rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% and 4.00%, respectively.

The UAE raised its overnight deposit facility base rate to 3.90%, while Oman raised its repo rate to 4.50%. Qatar also raised key rates by 25 basis points.

This matters because higher rates affect: banks → mortgages → real estate → corporate borrowing → investment → consumer credit → equity valuations.

The MENA stock story is therefore no longer only an oil story. It is increasingly an oil + rates + liquidity + growth story.

10. OIL REMAINS THE MASTER VARIABLE

Brent crude closed Friday at approximately $103.18 per barrel, while WTI closed around $100.30.

Oil prices had risen sharply during the week because of concerns over supply disruptions, particularly involving Saudi infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz.

But Friday’s decline demonstrated another important feature of the current market: Oil can fall even while geopolitical risk remains elevated.

For MENA+1 investors and analysts, the relevant question is therefore not merely: Where is oil trading? It is: Why is oil trading there, and what happens to that underlying driver next?

11. WHAT THE MARKETS ARE TELLING JAFAJ

1. MENA+1 IS NOT ONE EQUITY MARKET

Abu Dhabi rose strongly while Dubai fell. Saudi Arabia was nearly flat while Türkiye experienced severe volatility. Morocco declined while Egypt recovered. The regional market cannot be described by a single index.

2. OIL IS IMPORTANT — BUT NOT SUFFICIENT

Oil affects energy producers, fiscal revenues, inflation, transportation and investor sentiment. But corporate earnings, interest rates and domestic economic conditions can overwhelm the oil signal.

3. SECURITY RISK IS BECOMING AN INVESTMENT VARIABLE

The market is increasingly pricing the physical security of pipelines + ports + shipping lanes + energy infrastructure + aviation + trade corridors.

4. DIVERSIFICATION MATTERS

Abu Dhabi’s healthcare and consumer-led gains illustrate how non-energy sectors can move independently of the oil shock.

5. DOMESTIC FINANCIAL STRUCTURE MATTERS

Türkiye’s market turmoil demonstrates that a market can experience a major shock originating inside the financial system rather than in the geopolitical or energy environment.

12A. CORPORATE INTELLIGENCE: WHAT THE INDEX IS NOT SHOWING

Index movements can conceal substantial differences among listed companies. JAFAJ therefore treats corporate developments as a second analytical layer: the index identifies the market direction; company-level performance identifies the transmission mechanism.

Company	Market	Weekly Signal	Why It Matters	Next Indicator
International Holding Company	Abu Dhabi	+4.8% Sept. 18	Leadership in the Abu Dhabi rally; large-cap influence means company-specific buying can materially affect the index.	Watch whether gains broaden beyond the largest names.
PureHealth Holding	Abu Dhabi	+4.7% Sept. 18	Healthcare strength supports the diversification thesis and provides a non-energy earnings signal.	Track healthcare demand, margins and expansion activity.
Lulu Retail Holding	Abu Dhabi	+2.6% Sept. 18	Consumer exposure provides a domestic-demand signal distinct from oil.	Track food inflation, consumer traffic and margins.
Emirates NBD	Dubai	-2.4% Sept. 18	Bank weakness provides a rates/liquidity signal rather than a pure oil signal.	Watch net interest margins, credit growth and funding conditions.
Emaar Properties	Dubai	-1.5% Sept. 18	Real-estate sensitivity makes the stock a useful rate and confidence indicator.	Watch transaction volumes, financing costs and property demand.
Talabat Holding	Dubai	+2.6% Sept. 18	Dividend announcement provided a company-specific catalyst despite broader index weakness.	Track cash generation, dividend policy and consumer demand.
Saudi Aramco	Saudi Arabia	Mixed / defensive	The stock remains the clearest listed proxy for the energy-security channel.	Track physical export capacity, infrastructure and crude differentials.
Commercial International Bank	Egypt	Supported Sept. 17 advance	Bank performance links equities to rates, FX availability and domestic credit.	Watch FX liquidity, loan growth and asset quality.
Arabian Drilling	Saudi Arabia	Contract-driven	A major gas-drilling contract illustrates how energy investment can support service companies even when the broader market is defensive.	Track contract awards, utilization and capex cycles.

Corporate analysis should not be read as a list of stock recommendations. Its purpose is to identify which business models are absorbing, amplifying or resisting the week’s macroeconomic shocks. For JAFAJ, this creates a bridge between macroeconomic intelligence and the corporate universe used in the broader MENA+1 Economic Index.

12. THE MENA+1 MARKET DASHBOARD

Indicator	What JAFAJ Should Ask
Equity Index	What did the market do?
Oil	What happened to the primary regional commodity?
Currency	What happened to dollar value?
Interest Rates	Did monetary conditions change?
Banking	Are financial stocks strengthening or weakening?
Energy	Are physical supply risks changing?
Liquidity	Is money moving into or out of the market?
Corporate News	What company-specific developments mattered?

This would make the weekly market report complementary to the GDP and inflation reports.

12B. MENA+1 MARKET METHODOLOGY

JAFAJ should treat the weekly market report as a standardized intelligence system rather than a collection of market headlines. The methodology below separates the observable market result from the economic and corporate mechanisms that produced it.

Dimension	Measures	Core Question	Analytical Purpose
1. Market Performance	Index close, daily move, weekly move, volatility	What happened?	Primary market outcome.
2. Market Breadth	Gainers/decliners, sector leadership, concentration	Was the move broad or narrow?	Distinguishes genuine market repricing from a few large-cap moves.
3. Macro Transmission	Oil, inflation, GDP, rates, currency, trade	Which macro variable moved the market?	Connects the market report to JAFAJ GDP and inflation intelligence.
4. Security & Logistics	Pipelines, ports, shipping, aviation, chokepoints	Did physical risk change?	Captures the region’s unusually important infrastructure/security channel.
5. Corporate Fundamentals	Earnings, dividends, contracts, guidance, sector demand	Which companies or sectors drove the move?	Prevents index-only analysis.
6. Liquidity & Financial Structure	Banking, fund flows, FX availability, market depth	Was the move liquidity-driven?	Critical for Egypt, Türkiye and smaller markets.
7. Cross-Market Comparison	Gulf vs North Africa vs Levant vs Türkiye	Was the shock regional or country-specific?	Prevents overgeneralization.
8. Forward Watch List	Next policy, corporate, commodity and security catalysts	What could change next?	Turns the report into forward-looking intelligence without making market forecasts.

DATA HIERARCHY. JAFAJ should use official exchange or central-bank data where available; Reuters and other major financial newswires for event-driven market explanations; company disclosures for corporate developments; and secondary market-data services only when primary data are unavailable. Where exchanges operate on different calendars, JAFAJ should record the actual latest trading session and label the date explicitly.

COMPARABILITY RULE. A market should not be labeled ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ solely because its daily percentage change differs from another market. JAFAJ should consider liquidity, market size, sector concentration, trading calendar, currency regime and the source of the move before making a cross-market interpretation.

12C. INVESTOR-USEFULNESS FRAMEWORK

The report becomes more useful to investors when it answers four separate questions: WHAT MOVED? WHY DID IT MOVE? WHO BENEFITED OR LOST? WHAT SHOULD BE MONITORED NEXT? JAFAJ should not answer the fifth question—what an investor should buy or sell—because that would convert intelligence reporting into investment advice.

Lens	Inputs	Investor-Useful Question
Macro Exposure	Oil, rates, inflation, GDP, currency	Identify the dominant external driver.
Sector Exposure	Energy, banks, real estate, healthcare, consumer, logistics, tourism	Identify where the macro shock is transmitted.
Corporate Catalyst	Earnings, contracts, dividends, guidance, restructuring	Separate company-specific catalysts from market-wide moves.
Liquidity Risk	Fund redemptions, trading volume, FX access, market depth	Identify whether price movement may be amplified by liquidity.
Security Premium	Infrastructure, shipping, border and conflict risk	Identify physical-risk pricing in the market.
Diversification Signal	Non-energy sectors and cross-country differences	Determine whether the regional shock is being absorbed unevenly.
Next Catalyst	Central-bank decisions, corporate actions, commodity moves	Define what information could change the current market narrative.

13. NEXT WEEK’S MENA+1 MARKET WATCH

1. Saudi energy infrastructure

Any further disruption to pipelines or export infrastructure could affect both oil prices and Saudi equities.

2. Strait of Hormuz traffic

Normalization would reduce a major regional risk premium; continued disruption would maintain pressure on energy, shipping and inflation-sensitive assets.

3. Federal Reserve policy

Higher U.S. rates transmit directly into much of the Gulf financial system.

4. Gulf banking stocks

Banks provide an important indicator of the interaction between interest rates, liquidity and domestic economic activity.

5. UAE diversification stocks

Healthcare, consumer, technology, logistics and real-estate companies should be monitored separately from energy.

6. Egyptian equities

Watch banks, tourism-related companies and domestic-demand sectors.

7. Türkiye

The investment-fund crisis requires close monitoring for evidence of containment or broader market spillovers.

8. Oil

The critical range remains around the $100-per-barrel threshold, but the reason for movements is more important than the number itself.

14. THE JAFAJ BOTTOM LINE

The MENA+1 stock market in September 2026 is behaving like a collection of different markets rather than one regional trade.

Energy security is dominating sentiment in Saudi Arabia and influencing Gulf markets broadly. But Abu Dhabi is demonstrating the importance of corporate and domestic-sector fundamentals. Dubai is responding differently from Abu Dhabi. Egypt is showing resilience after early-week pressure. Morocco is moving independently of the Gulf energy story. And Türkiye is confronting a financial-market shock with a substantially different origin.

The most important development is therefore market differentiation.

The MENA+1 investor universe is increasingly separating into: ENERGY MARKETS; DIVERSIFICATION MARKETS; DOMESTIC-DEMAND MARKETS; FINANCIAL MARKETS; TOURISM/SERVICES MARKETS; LOGISTICS MARKETS; HIGH-RISK/CONFLICT-AFFECTED MARKETS.

That is precisely why the MENA+1 Economic Index should not simply track share prices.

It should connect: GDP + INFLATION + INTEREST RATES + CURRENCY + OIL + TRADE + CORPORATE EARNINGS + EQUITY PERFORMANCE.

The market is the final transmission mechanism through which many of the economic forces examined in the JAFAJ GDP and inflation reports become visible to investors.

SOURCE & CITATION ARCHITECTURE

For publication, JAFAJ should attach a source marker to every material market statistic or event claim. The preferred hierarchy is: (1) official exchange / central-bank release; (2) company filing or disclosure; (3) Reuters or another primary financial newswire; (4) recognized market-data provider; (5) secondary reporting only when necessary. The source register below is designed to support that architecture.

ID	Source	Primary Use	URL
S1	Reuters, Sept. 18, 2026	Abu Dhabi and Dubai market performance; IHC, PureHealth, Lulu Retail, Emirates NBD, Emaar and Talabat.	https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabi-gains-ihc-rally-dubai-falls-2026-09-18/
S2	Dubai Financial Market	DFMGI close, daily performance, trading activity and company-level market data.	https://service.dfm.ae/Bulletins?L=1
S3	Reuters, Sept. 17, 2026	Gulf markets, Fed transmission and Saudi/UAE/Oman/Qatar rate changes.	https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-bourses-edge-higher-investors-weigh-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-17/
S4	Financial Times, Sept. 18, 2026	Türkiye investment-fund liquidation and approximately $17 billion exposure.	https://www.ft.com/content/3943277e-eaf8-4faf-9f9c-1c05cb2ba992
S5	Amman Stock Exchange	Jordan index and daily market statistics for Sept. 17, 2026.	https://www.ammanstockexchange.jo/en/daily_summary
S6	Investing.com / Al-Quds historical data	Palestine Equity Index latest available Sept. 17, 2026.	https://www.investing.com/indices/ple-historical-data
S7	DFM Historical Data	Official DFM historical index and sector data.	https://www.dfm.ae/the-exchange/statistics-reports/historical-data/dfmgi
S8	Reuters, Sept. 18, 2026	Global oil and rate context; Brent remained above $100 amid Middle East supply concerns.	https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-18/

CITATION STANDARD. In the final publication layout, convert these source IDs into numbered endnotes or footnotes at the first occurrence of each material claim. Repeat citations should use the same source ID where the source supports the repeated claim. For market data, cite the exchange or data provider directly and preserve the actual observation date. For reported explanations or allegations, attribute the claim to the named source rather than presenting the interpretation as JAFAJ’s own factual finding.

DATA NOTE

This report uses the latest available market data as of September 19, 2026. Trading calendars differ across MENA exchanges, and some regional exchanges do not publish on the same days. Market indices should therefore be compared using their actual latest trading session rather than assuming simultaneous Friday closes. Where official exchange data were available, they were preferred; Reuters and other major financial sources were used for event-driven explanations. The Arab Monetary Fund also reports that some exchange data in its regional database may be older than the latest available local-market data.

This report is analytical market commentary, not investment advice.