JaFaJ

1. Summary: Obsessed with aspirations of greatness and regional dominance United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) has been put in his place thanks to the reconciliation deals between Saudi Arabia and both Iran and Qatar. MBZ has been trying to disrupt the status quo by trying to invoke Russian involvement in regional conflicts, with a focus on the Persian Gulf in particular. MBZ is a man who has played well on the differences and disagreements between his neighbors, and as such, finds himself unable to do what he does best: claim to be the moderator and negotiator on behalf of everyone. Nonetheless, MBZ’s vast oil wealth and his relentless desire to become the region’s “top dog” means that he is not going anywhere, anytime soon.
2. United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) flew to Russia to meet President Putin on 16 June 2023. According to an official statement by the UAE, Ukraine was the meeting’s main subject. A short video distributed by Russia’s state-owned TV, Russia Today (RT), showed a part of the meeting [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xtj1tJWkkIc]. In the video, MBZ is showing strolling with Putin telling him, “We have received a lot of threats because of the Russian situation but thank God we held our ground despite the Westerners.” RT, the UAE’s media, and social media accounts all celebrated the video as evidence of MBZ’s “strength in the face of America and the West,” alleging that the UAE was close to negotiating a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine. Nonetheless, JaFaJ sources have confirmed that Ukraine was just one of the issues discussed, and was by far, not the main topic of discussion.
3. JaFaJ sources in the UAE have confirmed that the top issue discussed was the Chinese-brokered peace deal between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran. The sources reported that MBZ is displeased with the peace between Iran and KSA because it “takes away his position as one of the Persian Gulf’s key players.” The source added that “MBZ and the UAE have the closest ties to Iran amongst all Arab states, and that for more than a decade, he was the go-to guy to negotiate with Iranians, allowing him to play the ‘beasts whisperer’ role.” Therefore, “peace between Iran and the Saudis means that MBZ no longer has any regional significance.”
4. Cultivated JaFaJ sources have confirmed that MBZ wanted President Putin to apply pressure on the Chinese, hopefully pushing them into a position where they “abandoned the peace deal they negotiated between the Saudis and the Iranians.” The source reported that MBZ warned Putin of “Opening the gates wide enough to allow the Chinese to meddle in Middle East affairs.” He also warned that this could come at Russia’s expense and access to the Middle East region.
5. A Western source who sustains good ties with MBZ’s inner circle of advisers has reported to JaFaJ that MBZ “is trying to push Putin into action against the Saudi-Iranian peace by calling in a favor, specifically reminding President Putin of what he has done for him in Syria.” [COMMENT: The favor he mentioned was the reintegration of Assad to the Arab League under UAE’s patronage Syria’s Dictator Bashar Assad is closely aligned with Russia and cooperated with the UAE. They both were working to have Assad readmitted back into the Arab league. The UAE took the lead in reintegrating Assad, who regained his seat at the Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia in May 2023. Help came in the form of diplomatic pressure and financial bribes paid for by the UAE to different Arab countries for their supportive vote. END COMMENT]
6. A source who has served as a Western advisor to the Government of UAE describes MBZ’s status quo as “convoluted.” The source added, “I don’t think he (MBZ) understands how things work now, he lacks international experience.” The source added, “For example, Putin has an alliance with China, and he will not disrupt that alliance or China’s role in Iran, Bin Zayed just doesn’t understand this.” The source continued by saying that “MBZ overlooks the fact that China supports Russia’s military control over Syria, MBZ just doesn’t understand his regional role, especially the concept that you cannot buy influence.” The source continued by saying that “For some reason, MBZ thinks of world politics as the next mega mansion or European football club he is going to purchase, and he has been failing miserably.”
7. The source concluded by saying that, “without tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and Saudi Arabia and Qatar, he has no real value as a broker and this alone, nullifies the core of his foreign policy, a policy that he is building on conflicts between his neighbors.” In other words, “His old tricks no longer work.”
MBZ’S Foreign Policy Gurus
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8. The Western source continued his criticism of MBZ’s foreign policy by claiming that “His entire policy is built on the backs of two Palestinians.” The first is Mohammad Dahlan. Dahlan is a former senior PLO official who has lived in exile in the UAE for close to two decades. According to sources, Dahlan is MBZ’s foreign policy “go-to guy.” The source continued by saying that “Dahlan is good at internal security and running a police state, but he does not know much about international politics.” The second Palestinian the source referred to is a naturalized UAE citizen named Zaki Nusseibeh. This advisor was born in Jerusalem to a small family known for its association with Western governments. Nusseibeh has been MBZ’s trusted advisor for over a decade. Supporting his trust, MBZ has appointed Nusseibeh’s daughter, Lana Nusseibeh, as UAE’s ambassador to the United Nations. The source describes both men as “Smart and very efficient with internal politics but not necessarily foreign policy,” but “It’s time that MBZ seek other opinions to help him accept his shrinking regional role.”
Conclusion
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9. The normalization between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran and the reconciliation between the Saudis and Qataris have disqualified MBZ as the self-styled key regional player who has been playing shrewdly on regional differences and disputes over the past decade. Many have recognized that MBZ’s tricks have expired and that he has been erased from the decision-making process, making him a hated man by the neighbors thanks to his manipulative tactics and blackmail in a region where leaders have long memories. Today, MBZ has very few allies, and the ones he does have are themselves fragile. [COMMENT: Prime examples are both the Hashemite rulers of Jordan and Libyan warlord, Haftar. END COMMENT]. As a result, MBZ is in no position to challenge anyone or to exert any significant political leverage. On the other hand, the more isolated MBZ feels, the more likely he will navigate regional politics by “stirring the pot,” causing more trouble for himself and others. One thing is certain from these actions: MBZ is not likely to make himself content with the wealth his country is blessed with and avoid getting into trouble. As a result, it appears more likely that the Middle East is going to witness signs of despair and reckless moves by a man who has everything yet is hungry for influence and is burdened by unrealistic aspirations, his role in history and his obsessive ambitions of power.

1. Summary: Determined to defend their homeland, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) is currently on alert to a highly-elevated risk of terror attacks and infiltration from both the Lebanon and Jordan’s borders. This comes after the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following an attack by an Egyptian border guard on June 3, 2023, which left three Israeli soldiers dead. The MID is concerned about the potential copycat situation amid mounting tensions with Jordan, noting that even members of the Jordanian Royal Family and Jordanian intelligence operations hold profound anti-Israeli views. At the same time, the Israelis are expecting more serve attacks from the Lebanese front, warning that Hezbollah may resort to kidnapping Israeli soldiers again as it did in 2006 which resulted in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
2. JaFaJ Intelligence Solutions has learned that the IDF is on high alert for potential terror attacks on Israel’s borders, with a focus being on the Lebanese and Jordanian Borders. JaFaJ has also confirmed that the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) fully briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 4, 2023 about the surge of potential border attacks and that Israel needed to be prepared for “copycat actions” that could (would) lead to a variety of deadly scenarios.
3. These warnings came less than 24 hours after an Egyptian border guard shot and killed two Israeli soldiers as they secured their position on the Egyptian border on June 3, 2023. The Egyptians crossed into Israeli territory and then killed a third Israeli soldier before he was neutralized by the Israeli forces.
4. According to Egypt’s official media, the government claims that the guard crossed the borders while he was chasing drug traffickers. JaFaJ has learned from American sources in Egypt, that “while the Egyptian military intelligence is still investigating the incident, they are convinced this was a terror attack, and that it is unlikely they will ever acknowledge this publicly.”
5. According to well-informed JaFaJ sources, MID has confirmed that the risk of increased attacks from Lebanon “may not be limited to throwing mortar shells as usual, and will possibly involve both infiltrating the borders and kidnapping soldiers like Hezbollah did in 2006.” [COMMENT: in 2006, the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, infiltrated the Israeli borders, killed eight Israelis soldier, and kidnapped two Israelis. This ultimately resulted in the 2006 war in Lebanon. END COMMENT]
6. JaFaJ can also confirm the MID has also warned of the “surging risk of terror attacks on the borders with Jordan, as those may be carried out by members of the Jordanian military.” The source added that the attacks may be triggered by a “potential copycat effect,” similar to the one carried out by the Egyptian officer earlier this week. A source reported the MID’s concern that such an attack is likely to happen because of elevated, “wide-spread hatred for Israel by the Jordanian Royal Family, as well as the military and intelligence, ranks that are closest to King Abdullah.”
7. Conclusion: As tensions rise in the Middle East and the fallout from the recent arrest of Jordan’s King’s loyalist and Parliament Member Emad Al-Edwan for smuggling both weapons and gold and his ultimate release, problems are going to arise. In addition, after the recent attack on Israeli soldiers by an Egyptian border guard, Israel will remain on high alert as she has tightened her borders. What is more alarming to Israel is the fact that she could not depend on her formerly trusted Arab allies, Jordan, and Egypt, to protect her borders. This sobering fact is a reminder that Israel can only depend on herself for protecting her citizens, and that as the region’s economic woes play a huge role in the actions of all governments and their people.

1. Summary: JaFaJ can confirm that the Israeli government has decided to prosecute the Jordanian Member of Parliament, Emad Al-Edwan, on terror charges, despite pressure from Jordan’s King and the United Arab Emirates. Prime Minister Netanyahu is supporting the Israeli Attorney General (AG) in carrying out the prosecution. A recent story run by an Israeli news site Maariv, claims Al-Edwan would be released soon, but this was dismissed as unfounded by a senior Israeli security source.
2. JaFaJ has learned that the Israeli police have finished its investigation of Jordanian Member of Parliament (MP) Emad Al-Edwan. Al-Edwan has been detained by Israeli authorities since April 23rd when he was arrested for attempting to smuggle 200 pieces of highly powered weapons and 220lbs of gold from Jordan into Israel. [Ref. JaFaJ report [https://acuitywebtechnologies.com/jafaj/jordanian-parliament-member-arrested-in-israel-for-smuggling-weapons-gold-the-untold-facts/]
Maariv Story “Unfounded”
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3. On April 28th 2023, Israeli newspapers Maariv ran a story claiming that Israel and Jordan had reached a “deal” to secure the release of Al-Edwan. Israeli journalist Jacky Hugi authored the report and claimed that the significance of Al-Edwan’s tribe’s has played a huge role in achieving the alleged deal. JaFaJ verified Hugi’s claims with a senior security official in Jerusalem. The official has confirmed that “This is totally unfounded, we have not made any deals with the Jordanians regarding Al-Edwan, and nobody can speak about this other than the AG’s or PM’s office at this moment.” The source continued, “In Israeli we have laws, this is a legal matter; Al-Edwan is not above the law.”
4. Furthermore, Al-Edwan’s tribe numbers a few hundred individuals “scattered across the entire central region of Jordan.” They do not pose any significant security or political threat to Israel or the Jordanian regime. [COMMENT: The so-called native Jordanians are the minority in modern day Jordan, with the Palestinians making up over 90 percent of the population. Nonetheless, the King’s decades-long rhetoric has been that the “tribes are so strong and that he alone could keep them under control.” In reality, the tribes do not have any military leverage and the Hashemite Kingdom has historically been preserved by foreign militaries including the Britons, the Pakistanis and the Americans. END COMMENT]
5. JaFaJ Intelligence sources have also learned that Israel’s police have forwarded all evidence, which includes recorded testimonies by Al-Edwan, to Israel’s Attorney General (AG), Gali Baharav-Miara. JaFaJ intelligence sources are reporting that the AG and her team are convinced that they have collected enough evidence to prosecute and convict Al-Edwan for several charges related to terrorism. An Israeli source has confirmed with JaFaJ that the AG met Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Netanyahu, last week and discussed the matter. Senior commanders of the Israel Security Agency, Shen Bit, and the Mossad also attended the meeting.
6. In the meeting, the AG discussed the evidence with the PM and outlined how she planned to prosecute Al-Edwan. JaFaJ sources confirmed that Netanyahu assured the AG of his support and that justice had to be served regardless of the pressure on Israel to release Al-Edwan.
7. Since the MP’s capture, JaFaJ has confirmed that Israel has been facing growing pressure to release Al-Edwan and sweep the entire matter under the rug. A JaFaJ source close to Jordan’s King Abdullah says that the King has mobilized his allies to pressure the Israelis, resulting in a barrage of phone calls to Netanyahu’s office from several European governments, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. According to the source, they were “all trying to twist Netanyahu’s arm into letting Al-Edwan out and claiming that the whole issue was just a misunderstanding.” Even so, both the PM and AG appear determined to make Al-Edwan face justice.
8. “The most radical pressure is coming from the United Arab Emirates,” an American security source reported to JaFaJ. “Mohammad Bin Zayed [UAE’s president] seems to be in love with Jordan’s King.” The source continued, “He wanted the Jordanian Congressman [MP] released scot-free, he just doesn’t realize how much damage this has done to his image here [in the United States] and in Israel.”
9. JaFaJ sources have confirmed that Al-Edwan was transferred to a secure maximum-security facility where he is being held in solitary confinement.
10. Conclusion: Despite the King’s pleas and pressure from his Arab and Western allies, it does not seem likely that Israel would ever release the MP before trial. Unless something drastic changes, Al-Edwan will likely face justice in Israeli courts with the possibility of spending many years in prison. This signifies a shift in policy by Israel, which has been very tolerant of Abdullah’s provocations, threats and direct tampering with Israel’s security.

Note: This story is developing fast, and will be updated as information becomes available.
1.Summary:
Jordanian Parliament Member Emad Al-Edwan was arrested on the 23rd of April, 2023 after crossing from Jordan into Israel. He was trying to smuggle high power weapons and gold into the country. JaFaJ was able to confirm the man is highly connected to the Kings inner circle and is considered a Jordanian intelligence asset. Jordan’s King private office has been pushing Israel to release him but without success so far. JaFaJ sources insinuated damning evidence of the Hashemite Kingdoms’ connections to terrorist groups who have carried out attacks in Israel.
2. On Sunday, April 23, 2023, Jordanian Parliament Member Emad Al-Edwan was arrested by the Israeli authorities after crossing the Allenby Bridge from Jordan for attempting to smuggle weapons and 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of gold into Israel.
3. The weapon cache included several M4 assault rifles and other high-powered weapons. The Israeli media circulated a video of the seized weapons without mentioning the Jordanian parliamentarian’s name in their story until the Israeli government issued a gag order banning the media from reporting on the matter. [COMMENT: The Israeli government takes Gag orders very seriously, with those breaking them risking significant jail time. A gag order is considered a state security matter in the Jewish state. END COMMENT]
Who is Emad Al-Edwan?
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4. Emad Al-Edwan is a Jordanian of East Bank heritage. His family dub themselves “a tribe,” indicating vast numbers of tribesmen, as most East Bank Jordanians do. In reality, the Al-Edwan family number less than 500 individuals and is no more prominent than any other family in Jordan. Born in 1988, Al-Edwan is married and holds a master’s degree in law. Before becoming a Parliament member, he was not a very successful lawyer with a humble practice in the Jordanian capital Amman.
5. Since college, Emad has been affiliated with the fearsome and very capable Mukhabarat, the Jordanian Genrra; Intellgence Department (GID). A Jordanian intelligence source confirmed: “He has been an informer of ours since 1997, and we have helped him win a parliamentary seat.” [COMMENT: In Jordan, the GID is known for meddling in all aspects in life in a manner very similar to the Stasi of East Germany, from soccer teams to government appointments. The GID follows a lifelong affiliation method: they recruit informants from universities and let them work for them for a lifetime. Hence it is only logical Al-Edwan would have never become a Parliament Member in a country where the GID has a documented history of rigging elections. END COMMENT]
The King’s Body, Al-Edwan, is More Connected than Most
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6. A Western intelligence source in Amman has confided to us that “Emad Al-Edwan is considered to be one of the King’s inner circle, with strong connections to the spokesman of the Jordanian parliament Ahmd Al-Safadi. As such, Al-Edwan was highly favored by both the King whom he met with regularly and the GID.” An American source reported to JaFaJ: “Al-Edwan was on the King’s A-list, and a likely candidate for the position of Speaker of the House or Prime Minister. He is also considered one of the King’s pit bulls, the go-to guy for crazy missions.”
Al-Edwan Was Covered by the Jordanian Embassy
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7. JaFaJ intelligence sources have confirmed that Al-Edwan entered Israel under direct diplomatic coordination provided by the Jordanian Embassy in Tel Aviv. In addition, Jordanian diplomats were “present” when the bust occurred. A Western intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that Israeli intelligence against suspect the Jordanian diplomats were involved in the smuggling operation and had aided and abetted Al-Edwan. The sources added that the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed the Embassy that it sought to speak to those diplomats to ask them what they knew about the matter. Still, the Jordanian turned this request down, and two diplomats hastily fled back to Amman in the afternoon.
8. At the same time, JaFaJ has confirmed that the head of the King of Jordan’s Royal Hashemite Court and his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ayman Safadi, has been trying to reach Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the arrest took place, hoping to secure the release of Al-Edwan and to stop the media coverage of the story. In addition, the Jordanian Chief of Intelligence, Hatuqai, called the Deputy Director of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence services.
9. JaFaJ can confirm the gag order was issued by the Israeli government for what our well-connected Western source in Jerusalem calls “A point of reasoning with Jordan in exchange for Al-Edwan telling them whom he has been delivering weapons and money to.”
The source added Al-Edwan has been on the radar screen of the Israeli security agencies for some time, and they have documented him delivering weapons and cash to several terror operatives in the West Bank, and this is supported with an abundance of evidence of that.”
Worse Than Anyone Thinks
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10. A Western intelligence source reported to JaFaJ the case of Al-Edwan is “worse than we have thought; it shows the government of Jordan has facilitated the delivery of weapons and cash to terror organizations in the territories [the West Bank] that have been used in recent terror attacks against Israeli civilians.”
11. JaFaJ has confirmed that Al-Edwan has been involved in three similar operations before this one, with connections to the newly emerging terror group “Ariene Al-Asood.” An Israeli source reported the following to JaFaJ, “We cannot comment on the case, but we have known from the beginning that Ariene Al-Asood is an offshoot of the Jordanian intelligence in the West Bank.”
What the Israelis Want to Know
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12. As the interrogation of Al-Edwan continues, the Israelis are seeking more information from him about whom he was planning to deliver weapons for in future operations and who has been giving him the orders in Jordan. Currently, the Israeli are more concerned with gathering evidence implicating the Jordanian government to stop it from supporting terrorists.
The King Wants to Blame it on the Iranians
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13. JaFaJ learned Jordan’s King’s advisors are working on blaming the issue on Iran and claiming Al-Edwan was working on behalf of Iranians. An American source reported to JaFaJ, “The Jordanians began calling everyone who would listen in DC claiming it was the Iranians and not them; this is hard to believe because Israel has been providing evidence suggesting the contrary and pointing towards Jordan.”

1. Summary: the King of Jordan has dispatched his Prime Minister to wealthy Qatar to seek extra financial aid. It is unlikely that Qatar will be providing any additional assistance to Jordan because of its recent reconsolidation with Saudi Arabia and also Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Iran. These political developments have stripped the King of any significance that he has ever had as the “semi-official middleman” between all parties. In addition, the King’s recklessness and arrogant positions and attitudes has cost him friends in the region, especially with the Arab Gulf states who are conscious of their honour and dignity. Strapped for cash and profoundly disliked by his people, the King might face serious public protests and unrest by his subjects by the summer of this year, with no sign from any of his fellow Arab rulers being able or willing to help Abdullah avoid his fate.
2. According to Petra, Jordan’s state news agency, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh flew to Qatar on April 9th, 2023, where it was reported that the “Prime Minister and a ministerial team began a two-day visit to Doha on Monday.” What’s unique about the visit is that Jordan’s King Abdullah rarely allows officials to conduct external visits. He only lets his Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, conduct such visits but rarely meets with governments of wealth or significance, such as Qatar. This made it very unusual for the King to allow his Prime Minister to pay an extended visit to Qatar, one of the King’s most staunch allies.
3. JaFaJ sources within the Jordanian government have confirmed that Al-Khasawneh’s visit was ordered by the King and his wife. A Jordanian General Intelligence Department source reported, “The King needs Qatar’s money and has been begging them for aid since last November, but to no avail. As a result, he took a different approach and sent the Prime Minister to do the begging and save himself [the King] some dignity.” Asked why he thought Qatar was no longer giving the King aid, the source responded, “It’s not just Qatar.” The source continued, “Except for the UAE and Oman, Gulf Arabs have not been providing any substantial help.”
4. The source added, “They are no longer convinced that they need to support Jordan, and they are not desperate for our help like before.” The source continued, “It is because they have on-going secret talks with Israel, and they are no longer afraid of Iran after Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a peace deal.” The source confided with JaFaJ that “as a result, they do not need the King to carry messages to either the Iranians or the Israelis and act as the middleman.” He added, “Now we [the Government of Jordan] are nobody to them.” His conclusion was surprising, “It is much worse than you think. Some of those Gulf States have established ties with the King’s growing opposition in London and, elsewhere, something they would not have dared to do just a year ago.”
5. JaFaJ sources inside the King’s office, the Royal Hashemite Court, confirmed that Al-Khaswaneh’s visit to Qatar was mainly ordered by the King’s wife, Queen Rania, who told him “To get as much financial support he could, even if just a few million dollars – anything.” The sources confirmed that Arab Gulf states have not been providing aid like they used to. [COMMENT: Several Arab Gulf states follow the leadership of Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis have lost a lot of confidence in Jordan’s monarchy due to King Abduallah’s ties to Iran which he had refused to end despite Iran’s hostility to Saudi Arabia. While Saudi-Jordanian times are not exactly wrong, some Saudi aid still flows, and the old days of substantial Saudi grants are gone. END COMMENT]
The Qatari Well Has Dried Up; Jordan A “Foreign Aid Blackhole”
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6. Despite being one of the world’s top gas exporters, the wealthy Qataris are cautious regarding how they spend their money, especially when Jordan is involved. A source close to Qatar’s Royal Emiri Court confided to JaFaJ, “Qatar no longer sees that it should provide any further help to Jordan’s King.” The source added, “We have provided a lot, and we employ tens of thousands of his [the King’s] people for very little appreciation.” The source continued, “We have our concerns and children to provide for, and those need our money more than anyone else.” He added, “Our political support for the King is unwavering; His Royal Highness Prince Tameem highly respects King Abdullah, but sorry, we no longer have the money to hand out to Jordan’s foreign aid blackhole.”
7. A British source in Qatar confirmed with JaFaJ that Qatar’s former passionate support for Abdullah is no more. The source added, “The Qataris are no longer inclined to provide blind support for the Muslim Brotherhood and those who support them, and Abdullah has been the Muslim Brotherhood’s sweetheart for a long time, and that came with inflated Qatari respect, but no more because Qatar has changed many of her policies since it has reconciled with Saudi Arabia.”
Conclusion
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8. Arrogant, reckless and considerably unrealistic about his assumptions, Jordan’s King has always managed to get away with provoking his Arab allies as much as he can and failing to appreciate their help. Nonetheless, the tide has changed not just in the Middle East, but in the Gulf, especially with the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both changes have left King Abdulla unable to play his favourite game: playing both ends against the middle.
9. The recent normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has impacted the King’s importance to both countries and the region. Very aligned with Iran, Abdullah has served as both a mediator and a message carrier between the Gulf and Iran, and he cannot claim this role now. Abdullah’s tightest alliance is with Muhammad Ben Zayed, the President of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar’s archenemy, who has occasionally been hostile to Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, Ben Zayed is not known to be as generous with his aid as the Saudis, and by siding with him, Abdullah has made both the Saudis and Qataris weary of him.
10. With his government being cash strapped and on the verge of bankruptcy, Jordan’s King is unlikely to find any Arab ruler that will give him a blank check, as they did in 2018 when Arab Gulf states gave him USD 2.5 billion to tackle and eliminate the protests then sweeping Jordan. As Abdullah is expected to face further regional political isolation, his already disgruntled people are likely to become even more furious over his actions as Jordan’s economy is worsening by the day. As a result, further unrest and unprecedented protests are likely to hit the Hashemite Kingdom during the summer of 2023.

1. Summary: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has issued a very harshly worded press statement protesting a visit to the premises of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli Minister of National Security. In the statement, UAE emphasized the need for “the comprehensive protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque and that stopping the serious and provocative violations therein, and to respect the role of the sisterly Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in caring for Sanctities and Waqf in accordance with international law and the existing historical situation.” This was followed by the postponement of a state-visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE. The UAE’s sudden hostility appears to stem from its desire to sustain the ongoing status quo between Israel and the Palestinians. In addition, pressure from the Jordanian monarchy, particularly Queen Rania, has influenced UAE President Mohammad Ben Zayed into developing less-friendly positions towards Israel. It also serves as a wakeup call to all of those in the region to the shortcomings of the Abrahamic Accords, which have worked to some extent, but cannot go further without involving a potentially new Palestinian leadership and neutralizing the obstructionism created by the King of Jordan. Peace between UAE and Israel is expected to endure but may just become another cold peace like the ones Israel has with Jordan and Egypt.
2. On the 3rd of January 2023, Israel National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third holiest site and the site of the Temple Mount. The Palestinians and Jordanians received the ultra-conservative Minister’s visit with anger. Jordan, by treaty, controls the Islamic Waqf of Jerusalem which includes full administrative control over the Mosque, and as such, the visit was considered a direct provocation to the Hashemite Kingdom and violation of the agreement. These events happened shortly after the King of Jordan threatened Israel with a “confrontation” in an internationally broadcast CNN interview if “the Jerusalem red line was crossed by the new Israeli government.” What came as a surprise though was a quick and unapologetic statement of condemnation from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
3. Hours after Ben Gavir’s visit, the UAE issued a press statement through its official news agency “strongly condemning Ben-Gavir’s infiltration into Al-Aqsa Mosque.” The Agency reported that the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said, “It has renewed the UAE’s firm position on the necessity of comprehensive protection of Al-Aqsa Mosque and stopping the serious and provocative violations therein”, and “the need to respect the role of the sisterly Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in caring for Sanctities and Waqf in accordance with international law and the existing historical situation, and without prejudice to her authority and powers of managing the endowments of Jerusalem and the affairs of Al-Aqsa Mosque.” Further, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on the Israeli authorities to “reduce the escalation and not take steps to exacerbate tension and instability in the region.”
4. At the same time, an announced visit to UAE by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was “rescheduled.” The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that they were rescheduling the visit “to take place later this month.” Although no official reason was given, this has not prevented the Arab media from celebrating the news as allegedly UAE President Mohammad Ben Zayed “cancelled his meeting with Netanyahu.” The UAE’s vast media empire and network of social media influencers, has not dismissed these claims. This signifies that UAE Officials are content with what has been reported.
5. According to JaFaJ sources, Jordan’s King flew to Abu Dhabi to meet with Mohammad Ben Zayed on the 4th of January, right after the announcement of the “rescheduling” of Netanyahu’s visit. According to the source, this was done as a “clear symbolic gesture of mutual solidarity between Abdullah and Ben Zayed.” Additionally, UAE’s tightly controlled social media influencers expressed solidarity with Jordan in particular “the Hashemite Custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
The Jordanian Role
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6. JaFaJ sources in the region have noticed that the hostility exhibited by the UAE towards Israel has grown. A Western political source close to both the Israelis and the UAE told JaFaJ that “This is all the work of Jordan’s King. Abdullah is begging Ben Zayed for support and pushing him towards antagonizing Israel because his Kingdom is spinning out of control.” The source added that, “The UAE’s attitude has developed in large part thanks to the influence of the King’s wife, Rania, rather than the King himself. Rania has played on Ben Zayed’s chivalry and calls him sometimes several times a week pleading for help, claiming that the Israelis are plotting against her husband and the throne.”
7. The source added that “kneejerk reactions are not in Ben Zayed’s nature.” “He is very calm, but can be easily influenced by those who plead to his humane side. Here, Ben Zayed apparently believes that he is saving an Arab woman in distress and is willing to risk his ties with Israel for it.” The source continued by saying that “At best, he is not calculating the amount of damage he is causing himself.”
8. An Israeli political figure who is no longer in the Israeli government spoke with JaFaJ, and dismissed the sentimental analogy provided by the Western source. He opined “This is not about UAE’s love for the King or his wife. The UAE wants to ‘butter its muffin’ on both sides. On one hand, they want to make peace with the Israelis and enjoy both military and intelligence cooperation, but on the other hand, they want to keep the status quo in Jerusalem and the territories [the West Bank]. This way the UAE thinks they are going to rise on top by playing both ends against the middle.” He added, “We respect the UAE, we appreciate Sheikh Ben Zayed and his brother Tahnoun, but they need to understand that we are not stupid, and that nobody can dictate to us what we do with our country, neither UAE nor their friend Abdullah [King of Jordan].” [COMMENT: Sheikh Tahnoun Ben Zayed is the brother of UAE’s President Mohammad Ben Zayed, who also serves as the UAE’s national security advisor. He is known for having good and cooperative ties with the Israeli. END COMMENT].
9. An Israeli intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that “We have good ties with the UAE. They know that we need to work together.” The source continued by saying that “disagreements happen between even the friendliest of countries,” and he pointed to the US and Canada as an example. The source when asked about the UAE’s recent hostility, and he responded by saying, “The UAE and Jordan are pushing us to keep the status quo on the Temple Mount and to sustain the peace process. Somehow, the Jordanians are obsessed with the thought that we are about to take over the Aqsa Mosque. This is not true, but it seems that the Jordanians are spreading this falsehood and have convinced the UAE’s leaders of it”.
A Sobering Situation
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10. The recent hostility exhibited by the UAE against Israel, comprises a moment of reckoning for the Israelis and many who have built too much hope on the Abrahamic Accords. In 2020, when the said accords were signed between Israel and four Arab states, UAE, Sudan, Bahrain and Morocco, many decision makers in Washington DC and Jerusalem were overly optimistic. Some went as far as to claim that the Abrahamic Accords would roll across the Arab world and mark an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The accords were the brainchild of President Trump’s top advisor and son in law, Jared Kushner. Thanks to their actions, the UAE has just proven that the accords were just a tactic for some Arab nations and not a strategy or a token of eternal friendship with the Jewish state.
11. The UAE’s recent actions have exposed several holes in the Abrahamic Accords. The first is the fact that it is impossible to achieve peace between Arabs and Israelis without the Palestinians. A DC-based diplomat who has served in the Middle East for over a decade confided the following to JaFaJ, “Kushner wanted something to show for his accomplishment, and when he found no traction with either the Palestinians or the Jordanian King, he decided to tackle the matter from the outside and not the opposite. At least this is what he claims. In reality, you cannot achieve peace for Israel across the region when there is no peace in Jerusalem itself.” The source added, “What Kushner did was to go around the edges, ignoring the centre of the problem. As a result, peace between UAE and Israel has not provided Israel with any leverage within the region but generated sway and good press for the UAE rulers, and Kushner was literally beating around the bush claiming this is going to eventually cut the big tree.”
12. When asked what Kushner could have done because the Palestinians were not cooperating, the source said, “Kushner should have sought new leadership for the Palestinians and the Trump administration should have taken a tougher stance on the King of Jordan. The King remains deeply involved in the trouble in Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Israelis did provide evidence of the Jordanian Waqf’s involvement in passing guns to terrorists who shot at Israeli police at the Mosque itself, but nothing was done about the King” [COMMENT: The source was referring to a terrorist attack that took place on July 14th, 2017, at the premises of Haram Al-Shareef of Al-Aqsa Mosque. Two Israeli police officers were shot dead, and three gunmen were killed. END COMMENT].
13. A Western intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that, “Technically, Israel has not gained much from peace with the UAE, nothing more than public diplomacy. That is because the UAE has had secret ties with Israel for three decades, long before their peace agreement, and not much has changed as far as I have witnessed.” The source continued by saying, “the level of intelligence cooperation between Israel and UAE has not necessarily increased, but keep in mind, they need Israel and not the opposite. It is also not clear if Israel’s peace with UAE has improved the chances for a regional peace agreement. For example, a peace with Saudi Arabia would open the gateways for other Muslim countries to join. That is because Saudi Arabia is the custodian of Islam’s two most holy sites, and even though the UAE is wealthy and agile, it does not have an important a religious status.”
14. The source added that, “There are profound differences on major issues and the Israelis walked into this in goodwill, but the UAE has not yet changed their stance on two major issues: their political and economic cooperation with Iran and their stance on the two state solution.” When asked why, the source was very clear, “they still want the Palestinians to establish their state on pre-1967 borders, including East Jerusalem as their capital.” The source then admitted that “Israel will never agree to this.” [COMMENT: UAE sustains substantial economic ties with Iran and general good political communications with it. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE does not treat Iran as an enemy. END COMMENT]
The Sky Has Not Fallen, Yet
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15. An Israeli diplomat reported to JaFaJ that “ties with the UAE remain good despite the setback.” The source added, “We have become used to negativity from our Arab partners, and we realize that change will take time. We are patient and we see the UAE as our trusted partner in the Gulf region, and what we disagree on we will negotiate”.
Conclusion
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16. The UAE’s position proves that making peace between the Arabs states and Israel is not as easy as some American and Israeli politicians have thought it to be. The difficult nature of the process is not only due to conflicting ideology, but also the fact that many Arab regimes have done so well under the region’s status quo, a status quo that includes the Arab-Israeli conflict. Therefore, most of them have fought hard against any changes that may result in ending the conflict. Also, it is necessary for Western and Israeli decision makers to understand the oral and emotional cultural aspects of the Middle East, and not mistake verbal warmth and welcomeness by some Arab rulers as signs of drastic change. For the foreseen future, it is unlikely that the UAE will change its position regarding the “two state solution and a Palestinian state on pre-1967 war borders with Eastern Jerusalem as the Palestinians’ capital.” One of the main reasons for this is because of the close ties between UAE and the King of Jordan, who conveniently adopts the same position and sees any wavering from it as a threat to his regime. Therefore, the UAE is not likely to compromise its friendship with Jordan’s King for the sake of better ties with Israel. In the end, a state of “cold peace” will be the future outcome of the ties between both countries.