1. Summary: JaFaJ intelligence sources in Tunisia have confirmed that the nation’s army is planning a regime change in which the current President, Kais Saied, would exit the government.
2. A western intelligence source stationed in the Tunisian capital, told JaFaJ that the “Tunisian army has already planned everything, this is a matter of when, not if, and Saied already knows, he has told the army he’s willing to step down when they ask him to do so”. The source added that the Tunisian army has concluded that the nation’s instability has “hurt the country’s soul and morale” and “turned Tunisia into a fragile country and a soft target for Islamists”.
3. Furthermore, a source very close to the Tunisian military has reported that “The army has been considering taking control of the country and ending the farce that has been ongoing since 2011 when Zine El Abidine Ben Ali left office.” The source added that they have been “waiting for just the right moment”.
4. A senior Tunisian security official told JaFaJ sources: “President Saied understands that his tenure will be limited, we have agreed with him on a checklist which he has been actively working out, he is a humble man who wants to serve our country then retire and it’s our duty to support him to the fullest”.
Tunisian General’s Concerns
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5. A senior retired Tunisian military intelligence officer spoke to JaFaJ and confirmed the following: the Tunisian army and intelligence apparatus are concerned about Tunisia’s future. They added that “Since the toppling of President Ben Ali [in Jan of 2011], Tunisia has been plagued with unrest and political vacuum.” [COMMENT: The post revolution Tunisian President, Moncef Marzouki, held office from December 2011 until December 2014. During that time, he was considered a mere figurehead because the real ruler was the Muslim Brotherhood. END COMMENT]
6. A senior advisor in Tunisia’s Presidential establishment confided to JaFaJ that the Tunisian army was not happy with the President’s weakness and that the “Muslim Brotherhood has surrounded the Presidential Palace like a pack of wild hyenas hounding a weak buffalo, waiting for the right minute to attack”. He explained further that, “The army’s generals are in regular communications with Western powers and have discussed their concerns with their counterparts. During those communications, they have stressed that the status quo is not working and that something needs to be done. The source added that if this continues in the direction they are heading, Tunisians could (would) find themselves in a situation like their next-door neighbour, Libya”.
Kais Saied’s One-Sided Love Affair with the Army
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7. Comment: Since taking office, Kais Saied has been hindered by the Tunisian Muslim Brotherhood’s strong presence in the country, as well as the struggle by different factions within the Tunisian ruling establishment itself. Therefore, Saied initially saw the army as the only reliable and predictable partner. This has made him very accommodating to the army’s generals. The ridicule by his opponents stretches deep, including stating that he is the army’s “puppet”. Nonetheless, the army’s concern is not with Saied himself or whoever resides in the Presidential Palace, but rather with eliminating the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the country and sustaining the country’s pre-Arab Spring stability and image as an oasis of secularism and stability.
8. An Arab Gulf diplomat and intelligence officer who has served in both Egypt and Tunisia reported to JaFaJ that the Tunisian army sees Saied as “incompetent and weak”. The source added, “His loyalty and accommodation to the army could never make up for the fact that he cannot handle the job no matter how much he tries”.
9. Comment: Even though the army’s top generals are not convinced of Saied’s skills, they have been using him to do their dirty work. The first example of this was in July 2021, when Saied suspended the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Parliament, waiving Parliamentary immunity for members and ordering the military to close the Parliament building. Saied\’s actions included relieving the Prime Minister of his duties, assuming Executive Authority, suspending the Parliament, closing the offices of foreign news agencies and firing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. This has allowed Saied to “rule by decree” and is under constant fire and accusations that he “carried out a coup and appointed himself dictator”. This has played out in the media. This media war has been ongoing and has been championed by Tunisia’s Muslim Brotherhood. Politically, they are known as the Ennahda Party. While they are trying to burn Saied at the stake, they do not even attempt to make any references to or attacks on the army.
10. An additional senior Tunisian intelligence source has confirmed with JaFaJ that, “Saied has been doing the army’s bidding while taking the blame in exchange for catering to his presidential ego, as well as a taste of the financial spoils he gets for being in office, like his salary, free accommodation and luxury presidential trips”.
The Army Has Made Its Decision
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11. A European intelligence source has informed JaFaJ that the Tunisian army and intelligence apparatus has made up their mind about the future of the republic and Saied’s place in it. The source stated that, “The army wants to eliminate all of the resources and capabilities that can be used by the Muslim Brotherhood in Tunis and then ask Saied to step down with respect, while declaring Presidential and Legislative Elections”.
12. The source continued by saying that “It is no longer a secret, and Saied knows this himself”. The source added that “he’s just doing what the army asks him to do because he has no other choice”. The source continued by saying that “If the Muslim Brotherhood catches this guy off guard, they will burn him at the stake”. The source ended by saying that “Saied is not getting a raw deal, he doesn’t like the Muslim Brotherhood either. Rather, he wants them gone and so does the army. He is getting old, and he would not mind a decent retirement after this whole mess, and the best scenario is this: he will appear as if he a champion who’s stepped down from the country’s highest office to empower democracy”.
A Soft Class Act Coup
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13. A Tunisian intelligence operative in Europe spoke with JaFaJ and explained that there “will not be a coup because the army will not topple Kais Saied. Rather, they are just helping him save the country from radicals like the Muslim Brotherhood.” The source added that “after the country is clear, Saied may choose to step down and allow radical-free elections to take place, or he may simply choose to run again” and we “will help him but never topple him”.
14. Another Tunisian intelligence associate disagreed by saying that “Yes, there won’t be a coup per se, but there is an agreement already between Saied and the army, and that agreement states that he will remain in power and step down after the country’s political system has been cleansed of radicals and Islamists”. The source added “Also, the man has proven to be a burden to the army and the country,” and continued on by saying that “he says stupid things and comes across as naive and inexperienced”. The source concluded that Saied is not the kind of leader that the Muslim Brotherhood can afford and they are doing their best to stay in power. This has created a vacuum, and as a result, Qatar, Egypt and Algeria all want a piece of Tunisia. These are the same countries that have turned Libya into a mess beyond recovery, we won’t allow Saied’s weakness to do this to us”.
Conclusion
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15. A member of Saied’s inner circle reported to JaFaJ that, “The current President, Kais Saied, is an academic turned President, and is considered by many to be a “wannabe leader”. Saied seems to be aware of where the real power in Tunisia lies – It is in the hands of the army and security entities. While he fully accommodates the army’s needs and has pushed through policy that has cracked down on Islamists, Saied seems resigned to the fact that he will be handing governmental power over to the army sooner or later. As a result, he is concerned about leaving a “legacy similar in nature to that of America’s George Washington”. Whatever may happen, two things seem to be very likely to be: First, the Muslim Brotherhood will never be able to control Tunisia again, the way they have, in the foreseen future. Second, Saied’s time in office is limited, and the army will “softly oust or replace” him with a man preferable to them.