Israel Can No Longer Rule Out War with Egypt, Growing More Alarmed by Cairo’s Military Alliance with China

Israel Can No Longer Rule Out War with Egypt, Growing More Alarmed by Cairo’s Military Alliance with China

1. A Washington source has confirmed to JAFAJ that Israel can no longer rule out the possibility of a war with Egypt within the next few years. According to the source, Israeli officials have already shared their concerns extensively with the Trump administration.
2. According to the source, the Israelis have taken note of Egypt’s increasingly hostile posture, which has intensified since the outbreak of the Gaza war following Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attacks against Israeli villages. Israeli officials suspect that Egypt either failed to adequately monitor the smuggling of weapons into Gaza across its border with the Strip or, even worse, that certain Egyptian military officers deliberately benefited from the weapons-smuggling operation through corruption.
3. The well-connected source, who has worked in close proximity to the Israeli establishment for decades, added that the issue causing the greatest concern to both Israel and the United States is the rapidly expanding military alliance between Egypt and China. He said this relationship has included increasingly extensive military cooperation, highlighted by the large-scale joint Chinese-Egyptian military maneuvers conducted in Egypt during 2025, at the height of the Gaza war, which Israeli officials interpreted as a deliberate show of force and a strategic warning directed at Israel.
4. The source added that Israel now increasingly views the Egyptian military establishment as a hostile strategic threat because of its growing military relationship with China and Cairo’s increasing economic dependence on Beijing rather than its traditional Western allies. He further stated that senior Israeli military commanders have repeatedly raised concerns with their American counterparts at U.S. Central Command regarding what they describe as the gradual expansion of Egyptian military deployments into areas of the Sinai Peninsula that were designated as off-limits to permanent Egyptian military forces under the Camp David Accords, which have remained in force for nearly five decades.
5. Comment.Military cooperation between Egypt and China began to expand significantly after President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power and has evolved into what many observers now describe as an increasingly close strategic military partnership. The relationship reached a new level in 2025 with the first-ever joint Egypt-China air exercise, “Eagles of Civilization 2025,”conducted between April 19 and May 4. China deployed J-10C multirole fighters, KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, YY-20 aerial refueling tankers, helicopters, and supporting personnel to Egypt. The exercise included air combat operations, aerial refueling, combined command and planning, combat search-and-rescue missions, and joint air support operations. Beyond the exercises, Cairo has expanded consultations with Beijing on military technology, aerospace cooperation, air defense systems, and defense industrial cooperation, while reportedly introducing the Chinese HQ-9B long-range air defense system into service. Israeli officials are understood to view this growing military relationship as one of the most significant strategic shifts in the regional balance of power in recent years.
6. Comment.Egypt remains one of Israel’s most significant regional partners, making the deterioration in the relationship particularly concerning. Egypt’s increasingly hostile diplomatic posture, combined with its expanding military alliance with China, has raised serious concerns within the Israeli security establishment. While both Cairo and Beijing may understand that a direct war with Israel would likely be devastating for Egypt and could rapidly expand into a much wider regional conflict, the increasingly reckless behavior exhibited by elements of the Egyptian military in recent years has heightened the risk of dangerous miscalculation. In particular, the decision to conduct large-scale joint military exercises with China near Israel’s borders, together with the unprecedented military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula—including deployments in areas that the Camp David Accords designated as off-limits to permanent Egyptian military forces—has reinforced Israeli concerns that Egypt is playing with fire. If such miscalculations continue, the consequences could extend far beyond Egypt and Israel, potentially igniting a conflict that engulfs the entire region.