Jordan’s King is Weak and Fragile, Still, Hamzah Has No Chance
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1. Summary: Jordan has been spiralling into unrest since early December. An ongoing national strike in protests of the King’s economic policies has blossomed into civil disobedience. In response, King Abdullah has recklessly dealt with those taking part in the strike (demonstrators), with the “heavy hand of oppression.” This has made the public more defiant and deepened the crisis. At the same time, some of the very few remaining loyalists to the King’s half-brother, Hamzah, have rekindled their hope of him replacing his brother as King. Still, Hamzah lacks any serious public support or access to either Jordan’s intelligence or army, therefore his chances of ever becoming King are null.
The King is Weak, Very Weak
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2. Since early December, Jordan has been on a national strike in protests of high fuel prices and including all public transportation and trucking vehicles. The strike has extended into private businesses and shops. The strikers were regularly engaged in peaceful demonstrations that spread across most of the country including the capital Amman. To add to the King’s woes, Jordan’s majority of Palestinian heritage is fully engaged in both the strike and the protests in Amman and Zarqa. This by itself poses a huge challenge to the King’s inherent policy of divide and conquer between Jordanians of Palestinian heritage and East Bankers.
3. The protesters were chanting the most dreadful chant the King could have heard “the People want to topple the regime.” While this call has not been the most used among protesters, insults and name-calling were aimed at the King and his wife.
4. In response to the protesters, the King has attempted to squash them using an “Iron Fist”. Videos circulating over social media clearly document the riot police beating up protesters in the streets and going as far as to wage collective harassment against entire blocks that appear to be connected to the protests. Videos also exhibit the King’s notorious gendarmerie throwing tear gas grenades at residential areas and homes, as well as arresting bystanders for no reason. This has resulted in an escalation by the protesters against the King’s character and the strike holding even stronger. The King’s crackdown on social media did not seem to help him, he ordered the blocking of the social media app TikTok and has been blocking and slowing the internet in order to stop Jordanians from spreading videos of the ongoing protests.
5. The King eventually agreed to marginally reduce fuel prices on New Year’s Eve, but that has not helped him as Jordanians are now publicly boasting “they have nothing to lose.” As a result, the strike is still holding strong, even as Jordan’s economy worsens day by day. In addition, Jordanians from all backgrounds have become unified against the King for the first time. Hence, the ongoing instability in Jordan is unlikely to end any time soon as the King is apparently powerless to redeem his image or defuse public anger against him.
6. With the situation worsening by the day and public consensus growing against King Abdullah, Western governments with highly vested interests in Jordan are now wondering about the country’s future. An American intelligence source has recently confided to an Arab Gulf Royal Family member “We wish for King Abdullah to bring peace to his kingdom, but we can’t see how he will be able to do this. We have given him all the help we could already, and he does not seem to be able to manage.”
Hamzah’s Few Remaining Loyalists Thrilled
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7. With the King being so fragile and hated by his subjects, some of the few loyalists to the King’s half-brother Hamzah, have recently rekindled their hope for him to become King. Hamzah, Abdullah’s half-brother whose mother is Lisa Al-Halaby, an American, better known as Queen Noor of Jordan. In April of 2021, Hamzah attempted a militarized coup in cooperation with some East Bank Bedouin radicals against his brother Abdullah. Since the attempt, Hamzah has been under Military Arrest and confined to his palace in Jordan. He is officially prevented from taking part in any political activities, while his two main co-conspirators (former Chief of the Royal Hashemite Court, Bassem Awadallah and Hashemite family member Hassan Bin Zaid), have both been sentenced to prison for engaging in acts of terror. Each was sentenced to fifteen years in prison under the Jordanian Counter-Terror Act.
8. Hamzah’s active loyalists count just a few dozen. A Jordanian intelligence major confirmed to JaFaJ that, “At best, Hamzah’s loyalists are less than 30 individuals and half of them are abroad. There’s nothing they can invoke or do”.
Hamzah Was More Dangerous Than Many Think
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9. Hamzah’s plot to take over the throne from his half-brother was violent in nature. According to JaFaJ sources, Hamzah recruited dozens of tribal figures to his side, promising them a garden of Eden once he gets rid of his brother. Further, he has recruited some violent and radical members into his plot. According to sources, this formed the basis of an investigation by the Jordanian Military Intelligence Department that was aimed at scaring Jordan’s Palestinian majority. The militiamen have been ideologically indoctrinated with hatred for Jordan’s Palestinian majority, under the claim “they have stolen Jordan from us,” and “We must universally strip them of their citizenships and turn them into residents in Jordan with no rights”.
10. Further, a senior source in the Jordanian military intelligence confirmed to JaFaJ that the “Hamzah group already had a terror checklist for the first week Hamzah was supposed to take over, with the target list including some Palestinian-Jordanian businessmen, social media figures and even facilities known to be associated with Jordan’s Palestinian majority.” For example, the Al-Wehdat Soccer Club Plot was designed to commit acts of race-fuelled terrorism against the Palestinians and their interests so they would submit to Hamzah as King. To implement his plot, Hamzah even recruited radical East Banker journalists and academics to assist him and aid in the indoctrination of his followers. This eventually materialized in uniting the radical group named “The Children of Jordan Abroad (CJA),” or “Abna Al Ordoun Fil Mahjar”.
11. The CJA’s members were brought together by Jordanian-Palestinian-American journalist, Muhammad Siyam. Siyam is a native of Bassem Awdallah’s home village near Jerusalem. In the plot, Hamzah enlisted Siyam’s help in crystalizing the group’s notions. The notions included the following: to replace Abdullah with Hamzah, to stop the opposition’s call for a regime change, and to “keep the regime and reform the nation,” all revolving around the slogan of “evolution instead of revolution.” Additionally, vilifying Israel and the United States were deemed to be “enemies of Jordanians because they want to hand Jordan to the Palestinians.” Lastly, it was designed to verify and attack the lead Palestinian opposition, Mudar Zahran as much as possible for being a Jordanian of Palestinian heritage.
12. Ironically, despite calling for military action against Jews and Israelis and seeking a militarized coup by which Jordan’s Palestinian majority would be compromised, the CJA did not register on the radar screens of security bodies in Europe and the United States where most of its radical members reside. Nonetheless, Hamzah’s terror plot for a Jordanian regime change surfaced only in January 2020, when German resident and member of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition (JOC) Mohammed Btaibet, first reported that one of the CJA’s key terror indicators raised red flags when the latter decided to visit Germany. The first red flag was Alaa Al-Fazaa. Al-Fazaa is one of the most outspoken figures of the terror group. Al-Fazaa was then residing in Sweden as a political refugee, where he was front and centre in the campaign against Abdullah and Jordan’s Palestinian majority. Al-Fazaa was also known then for calling for the death and destruction of the United States and Israel.
13. According to JaFaJ sources, the story started to unfold when Btaibet noticed that Al-Fazaa was using Twitter to call for murdering American soldiers. When he announced that he would be visiting the German city of Munster close to an American military base, Btaibet reported this to the German police and Mudar Zahran, the JOC’s leader. Zahran, in writing, passed the warning information to the US Defense Intelligence Agency. In the letter, Zahran warned them that radical Al-Fazaa was arriving in Germany and choose to stay near an American base. This happened just two days after his thousands of followers read on social media that he “would like to see 80 American soldiers killed.”
14. Being the first to report this to authorities, Btaibet was approached by German authorities and counterterrorism bodies, including those of Munster. The German Counter Terrorism Task Force, along with Munster Police and the US Defense Intelligence Agency as observers, met with Btaibet where he told them on the record of Hamzah’s terror plot to take over the throne in Jordan. This information was passed to other intelligence bodies in the US and UK, as well as the Jordanian Military Intelligence. According to confidential sources, they began monitoring Hamzah’s movements and communications in late January 2020.
15. During his discussions with authorities, Btaibet provided full accounts of Hamzah’s plot, including his intentions to carry out a coup and incite Jordanian tribes against the Palestinian majority. Btaibet warned that “Hamzah was plotting a coup and harboring Islamist radicals with a network that stretches across Europe and has connections inside the Jordanian army itself.” Btaibet’s warnings were not taken seriously by the Jordanian intelligence community, and in the beginning, they were not even aware of Hamzah’s plot.
16. This is when the American intelligence establishment began to monitor Hamzah and his actions. They even notified their Jordanian counterparts to observe Hamzah’s actions. This was confirmed by JaFaJ sources when the plot came out in April 2021. At the time, the Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi said in a televised press statement that, “Prince Hamzah had been under surveillance for a year.” The Guardian, a British daily paper, revealed in May of 2020 that “The American Embassy in Amman had revealed Hamzah’s plot to the Jordanian intelligence” was it not for the Americans finding out about the plot, the Jordanian intelligence establishment would not have taken any of Hamza’s activities seriously.
17. According to confidential JaFaJ sources, Btaibet also warned authorities that Al-Fazaa was leading a radical group in the West and provided the German authorities with a full account of the latter’s radical activities. The German counterterrorism police arrested Al-Fazaa along with two of his associates in Munster. Eventually, the other two were let go as Al-Fazaa remained in custody for questioning in the presence of German intelligence officers. American intelligence officers were also “observing.” After his detainment, Al-Fazaa provided a treasure trove of information about the terrorist Hamzah network in Europe and even admitted to his interrogators that he was working with Hamzah. He went as far as to tell them that they needed to contact specific Jordanian intelligence officers “to confirm that he is not a terrorist and was working with the Jordanian intelligence.”
18. Eventually, Al-Fazaa was later deported back to Sweden, where Mudar Zahran kept communicating with him. In Sweden, he spoke with Swedish Authorities, particularly the Ministry of Justice and the Swedish Intelligence. During the conversation, he urged them to seek the transcripts of the interrogation that he had with the Germans. Eventually, the Swedish obtained them and revoked Al-Fazaa’s refugee status.
19. Since then, Hamzah, Awadallah and Sheriff Bin Zaid have not been seen or heard from. Nonetheless, JaFaJ can confirm that Hamzah is no longer in Jordan. According to an American intelligence source, “Hamzah had no prayer in the first place, and his supporters have always been few. Now they are even fewer.” The source added that “Yes, Hamzah might have had some support within the rankings of the Jordanian security and military apparatus, but there were very few at best, numbering less than a dozen.” The source concluded by saying that “Hamzah is no longer a threat, nor has he ever been a viable alternative to the King.”
Hamzah Has No Prayer
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20. Despite the extensive effort by Hamzah’s remaining loyalists to portray him on social media as a leader, it is clear that Hamzah has no public support. The majority of Jordanians of Palestinian heritage have a sincere disdain for Hamzah and his mother because they symbolize racism and hatred toward Palestinians. Some of the most racist and anti-Palestinian East Bankers have been portraying Hamzah as the messiah who would “restore Jordan to Jordanians and kick out the Palestinians.” This by itself has made it impossible for Hamzah to secure any approval or any form of support from Jordan’s majority.
21. As for Jordan’s East Bankers, the majority of them have developed disdain and resentment towards the Hashemites. This has become the most apparent in the slogans and chants by the demonstrators. In them, the demonstrators do not exhibit any love for Hamzah, and the handful who do are suspected of being directly connected to Hamzah himself. According to a Jordanian military intelligence source, “some of them have received payment from Hamzah, therefore they do not represent the majority.” A major at the Jordanian General Intelligence Department confided to JaFaJ, “Hamzah has been under house arrest for almost two years now, so his so-called followers have not been able to stage a single protest in his support. This clearly shows us that he does not have any public backing”.
22. In addition, the Jordanian Major confirmed that, “Hamzah’s former loyalists within the Jordanian intelligence and military apparatus have been exterminated.” A Western military intelligence source stationed in Amman reported to JaFaJ that, “There were a few dozen officers in the army and the Mukhabarat [intelligence department] on Hamzah’s payroll, but they all have been exterminated.” The source continued by saying that “Our boys and the Britons military intelligence guys have exposed all of those and all of them have been fired from their jobs or forced into early retirement.
Conclusion
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23. As the unrest and demonstrations continue to grow larger in Jordan every day, and as the economic crisis deepens, the King’s recklessness handling of the situation is likely to threaten the political survival and stability of his regime. At this point, it is safe to say the next three Winter months will push the Jordanian people to their limits, and will harshly test the King and his regime beyond any threshold ever experienced, even to the breaking point. At the same time, the King is unlikely to risk passing the throne to his very unpopular Crown Prince, Hussein. [See JaFaJ report on this matter: https://acuitywebtechnologies.com/jafaj/afraid-and-confused-jordans-king-embarks-on-a-public-relations-crusade/] Nonetheless, the King’s brother is not an option as successor because he lacks public support and has no access to the powers that be within the Jordanian military and intelligence.