Tidbits – Page 34

Hezbollah And The Lebanese Parliament

2026-06-07 / JaFaJ

HOW A NON-STATE ARMED GROUP BECAME ONE OF THE MOST
POWERFUL POLITICAL FORCES IN LEBANON
IN A NUTSHELL
Core Question: Does Hezbollah control Lebanon’s Parliament?
Short Answer: Not directly.
Reality: Hezbollah does not need to control Parliament to influence it. Through alliances, military power, coalition building, and institutional leverage, Hezbollah has become one of the most influential political actors in Lebanon while avoiding the responsibilities associated with full state control.¹
Bottom Line: The story of Hezbollah is not how it captured Parliament.
The story is how it learned to influence Parliament without owning it.
THE CENTRAL MISUNDERSTANDING
Many outside observers imagine Hezbollah as a military organization operating outside the Lebanese political system.
That is no longer accurate.
Hezbollah operates inside the political system while simultaneously maintaining an independent military force.
This dual structure gives Hezbollah advantages unavailable to ordinary political parties:

It participates in elections.
• It holds parliamentary seats.
• It participates in governments.
• It maintains an independent military force.
• It receives external support from Iran.
• It can exert pressure outside normal political channels.²

Most political parties possess only political power.
Hezbollah possesses political power and military power simultaneously.
That distinction changes everything.
UNDERSTANDING THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENT
Lebanon’s Parliament consists of 128 seats distributed through a complex sectarian system created by the Taif Agreement following the Lebanese Civil War.³
The system divides seats among religious communities:

Sunni Muslims
• Shia Muslims
• Maronite Christians
• Druze
• Greek Orthodox Christians
• Other recognized groups

The purpose was stability.
The result was fragmentation.
Because no party can easily dominate the system, coalition politics became the primary method of governing.
This environment favors organizations capable of building durable alliances.
Hezbollah mastered this environment.
HEZBOLLAH’S PARLIAMENTARY EVOLUTION
Phase One: Resistance Movement
In the 1980s Hezbollah functioned primarily as an armed resistance movement focused on fighting Israeli occupation and expanding Iranian influence.⁴
Parliament was secondary.
Weapons were primary.
Phase Two: Political Entry
In the 1990s Hezbollah entered parliamentary politics.
This was a strategic decision.
Leadership recognized that political legitimacy could provide protection that military force alone could not.
Participation in elections allowed Hezbollah to gain:

Legitimacy
• Access to government institutions
• Budget influence
• Patronage networks
• Intelligence advantages

Phase Three: System Integration
By the 2000s Hezbollah had become both a political actor and an armed organization.
This combination transformed the movement.
It no longer operated outside the state.
It operated inside the state while maintaining capabilities outside the state.
THE PARLIAMENTARY POWER MODEL
A critical mistake made by many analysts is assuming political power equals seat totals.
In Lebanon, power often comes from coalition positioning rather than numerical control.
Hezbollah generally wins between 10 and 15 seats directly through its own parliamentary bloc.
On paper this is a relatively small percentage of Parliament.
Yet Hezbollah’s influence extends far beyond those seats.⁵
The organization gains power through:

Alliance with the Amal Movement
• Relationships with sympathetic parties
• Coalition bargaining
• Influence over cabinet formation
• Ability to block unfavorable outcomes

The result is influence disproportionate to seat count.
THE NABIH BERRI FACTOR
No analysis of Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence is complete without examining the role of
Nabih Berri.
For decades Berri has served as Speaker of Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement.
Although Amal and Hezbollah are separate organizations, they function as the dominant political forces within Lebanon’s Shia political sphere.⁶
This relationship creates a powerful advantage.
The Speaker controls:

Parliamentary scheduling
• Legislative procedures
• Agenda management
• Voting processes

This does not mean Hezbollah controls Parliament.
It means Hezbollah often operates in an environment where key institutional actors are political allies.
That distinction is important.
THE 2008 LESSON
The most important moment in understanding Hezbollah’s parliamentary influence occurred in 2008.
Following a political crisis, Hezbollah fighters temporarily seized portions of Beirut after government decisions challenged the group’s communications infrastructure.⁷
The event demonstrated a reality that still shapes Lebanese politics today:
When political disputes occur, Hezbollah possesses capabilities that other political parties do not.
The lesson was absorbed throughout the political system.
Military capability became an implicit factor in political calculations.
This influence does not appear in parliamentary vote counts.
It appears in political behavior.
WHY HEZBOLLAH DOES NOT WANT FULL CONTROL
Many assume Hezbollah seeks to govern Lebanon outright.
Evidence suggests otherwise.
Full control would create significant liabilities:

Responsibility for economic collapse
• Responsibility for public services
• Responsibility for corruption
• Responsibility for state failure

By remaining influential rather than dominant, Hezbollah gains many advantages without assuming all costs.⁸
This may be the organization’s most effective political strategy.
Influence without ownership.
Power without accountability.
THE POST-2022 ENVIRONMENT
The 2022 parliamentary elections produced a setback for Hezbollah and its allies, which lost their parliamentary majority.⁹
Yet the organization remained influential.
Why?
Because Hezbollah’s power was never based solely on seat totals.
Its influence derives from:

Armed capability
• Political alliances
• Institutional relationships
• External sponsorship
• Social-service networks

Parliamentary losses reduced influence.
They did not eliminate it.
THE 2025–2026 CHALLENGE
Recent developments have exposed increasing tension between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.
Government officials have discussed plans aimed at consolidating weapons under state authority and reducing the role of non-state armed actors.¹⁰
At the same time, Hezbollah continues to maintain significant representation within political institutions and remains deeply embedded in Lebanese politics.¹¹
The result is a growing struggle over a fundamental question:
Who ultimately controls force in Lebanon?
The state?
Or Hezbollah?
That question remains unresolved.¹⁰
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
The central reality is uncomfortable.
Hezbollah does not control Parliament.
Yet Parliament cannot fully ignore Hezbollah.
That distinction explains much of modern Lebanese politics.
The organization’s influence comes from combining:

Electoral legitimacy
• Coalition politics
• Institutional relationships
• Military deterrence
• External sponsorship

Most political parties possess one or two of these variables.
Hezbollah possesses all five.
This gives it leverage few competitors can match.
FINAL CONCLUSION
Hezbollah’s greatest political achievement was not capturing Parliament.
It was making parliamentary power only one part of a larger system.
The organization learned that controlling every institution creates responsibility.
Influencing institutions creates power.
As long as Hezbollah maintains military capability, political alliances, and external support, it is likely to remain one of the most influential actors in Lebanon regardless of the number of seats it holds in Parliament.
The real question is not whether Hezbollah controls Parliament.
The real question is whether Parliament can govern independently of Hezbollah.
That question remains unanswered.
REFERENCES

Chatham House, “Lebanon’s Politics and Politicians.”
Augustus Richard Norton, Hezbollah: A Short History.
Lebanese Parliament and Taif Agreement constitutional framework.
Kenneth Katzman, Congressional Research Service, Iran and Hezbollah.
Lebanese electoral data and parliamentary records.
Reuters and Lebanese parliamentary reporting regarding Speaker Nabih Berri.
Historical analyses of the 2008 Beirut conflict.
Chatham House, How Hezbollah Holds Sway Over the Lebanese State.
Election results from the 2022 Lebanese parliamentary election.
UK House of Commons Library, Lebanon 2025: Plans to Disarm Hezbollah.
Freedom House, Lebanon Country Report 2025.

FOOTNOTES

Chatham House, “Lebanon’s Politics and Politicians,” 2021.
Augustus Richard Norton, Hezbollah: A Short History (Princeton University Press, 2007).
Parliament of Lebanon and Taif Agreement constitutional framework.
Kenneth Katzman, Congressional Research Service reports on Hezbollah and Iran.
Lebanese parliamentary election records.
Reuters reporting and parliamentary records regarding Nabih Berri.
Historical analyses of the May 2008 Beirut conflict.
Chatham House, “How Hezbollah Holds Sway Over the Lebanese State.”
2022 Lebanese parliamentary election results.
UK House of Commons Library, Lebanon 2025: Plans to Disarm Hezbollah.
Freedom House, Lebanon 2025 Country Report.

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Hezbollah: The Parallel State Of Lebanon

2026-06-07 / JaFaJ

LAW, POWER, AND SYSTEM-LEVEL CONTROL IN MODERN HYBRID WARFARE
IN A NUTSHELL
Core Question: What is Hezbollah—terrorist organization, political party, or state proxy—and how should its power actually be understood?
Key Law: International law lacks effective enforcement mechanisms for non-state actors embedded within sovereign governments while maintaining independent armed forces, creating persistent accountability gaps.¹
Reality: Hezbollah operates as a hybrid power system that integrates military force, political authority, economic networks, and external state sponsorship into a unified and self-reinforcing structure.
Bottom Line: Hezbollah is not a group. It is a parallel state embedded within Lebanon and structurally integrated into Iran’s regional power architecture.
LEGAL AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK — DEFINING HYBRID POWER
Traditional legal categories—such as terrorist organization, political party, or proxy—fail to capture Hezbollah’s operational reality because they isolate functions that Hezbollah has successfully integrated.
This report applies a system-based analytical framework built on four measurable variables that determine long-term organizational survivability and power:
Military capability refers to the independent control and deployment of force without reliance on state authority. Political integration reflects the ability to influence or shape decisions within formal state institutions. Financial sustainability represents access to stable and diversified funding streams that can survive sanctions or disruption. External sponsorship refers to protection, resourcing, and strategic alignment with a state actor.
Empirical evidence demonstrates that organizations possessing all four variables exhibit survival rates exceeding 70 percent beyond a decade and evolve into durable power systems rather than temporary threats.²
Hezbollah satisfies all four variables simultaneously. This is the defining structural fact that explains its persistence.
EXPANDED THESIS — A SYSTEM, NOT A GROUP
Hezbollah is consistently mischaracterized because it operates across multiple domains simultaneously rather than within a single functional category.
As a military force, Hezbollah maintains an independent command structure and controls a large-scale weapons arsenal capable of strategic impact. As a political actor, it participates in government institutions and influences policy outcomes through coalition dynamics. As a social system, it provides welfare and services that generate legitimacy among local populations. As a proxy, it extends Iranian strategic influence across multiple regional theaters.
The result of this integration is a structural imbalance within Lebanon. The Lebanese state retains formal sovereignty in legal terms, but Hezbollah exercises functional power in practice.
POWER MODEL — HOW HEZBOLLAH ACTUALLY CONTROLS OUTCOMES
Hezbollah does not need to formally govern Lebanon in order to dominate its political and security environment. Instead, it operates through a layered control system that allows it to shape outcomes without assuming full responsibility.
First, Hezbollah maintains military dominance. Its armed capabilities exceed those of any domestic political competitor, which prevents meaningful internal opposition and establishes a deterrent against challenges.
Second, Hezbollah leverages political influence. Through coalition alliances and participation in parliamentary structures, it is able to shape government formation, influence policy decisions, and block unfavorable outcomes.
Third, Hezbollah exercises institutional influence. Strategic relationships within state structures allow it to exert indirect control over key decision-making processes, effectively granting it veto power over critical state actions.
Fourth, Hezbollah relies on external backing. Iranian funding, weapons, training, and strategic guidance ensure long-term survivability and reduce vulnerability to internal or external pressure.
Together, these four layers produce what can be described as a veto-state model. Hezbollah does not fully control Lebanon, but Lebanon cannot act in ways that fundamentally threaten Hezbollah’s interests.
LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE AND SYSTEM RESILIENCE
CURRENT TRANSITION
Following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, leadership transitioned to Naim Qassem, creating a critical test of organizational resilience.
The transition demonstrated that Hezbollah’s operational capabilities remained intact, its command structure remained stable, and its strategic direction did not shift. There was no evidence of fragmentation or internal power struggle.
This outcome confirms that Hezbollah is not dependent on individual leadership figures. Instead, it operates as an institutionalized system with built-in continuity mechanisms.
THE NASRALLAH DOCTRINE — SYSTEM EXPANSION (1992–2024)
Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah underwent a fundamental transformation from a localized militia into a regional power system.
The organization expanded its operational footprint beyond Lebanon into multiple theaters, including Syria. It integrated itself into Lebanese political institutions while preserving its independent military structure. It deepened its alignment with Iran’s strategic network and developed into an expeditionary force capable of sustained external operations.
The most important shift was structural rather than tactical. Hezbollah transitioned from reacting to conflict environments to actively shaping them.
IRAN–HEZBOLLAH RELATIONSHIP — CONTROL WITHOUT OWNERSHIP
The relationship between Iran and Hezbollah is structural rather than transactional, meaning it is embedded in long-term strategic alignment rather than short-term exchange.
Iran provides financial resources, weapons systems, military training, intelligence support, and strategic direction. Hezbollah, in turn, provides Iran with forward defense capabilities, regional influence projection, and deniable operational capacity.
A critical distinction must be maintained. Iran exerts significant influence over Hezbollah, but it does not exercise absolute control. Hezbollah retains operational autonomy in key decision-making areas.
This creates a semi-autonomous system in which both actors are aligned but not fully dependent on direct command relationships.
MILITARY CAPABILITY — NEAR-STATE FORCE STRUCTURE
Hezbollah possesses one of the most advanced military capabilities of any non-state actor globally.
The organization maintains between 20,000 and 30,000 active fighters, supported by a comparable reserve force. It controls an arsenal exceeding 100,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided systems capable of targeting strategic infrastructure. It also operates drone systems, anti-ship missiles, anti-tank weapons, and hardened underground infrastructure designed for survivability.
Its combat experience, particularly in Syria and in conflicts involving Israel, has significantly improved its logistics, coordination, and command capabilities. As a result, Hezbollah now functions as a hybrid military force with characteristics approaching those of a conventional state military.
CONSUMER AND MARKET IMPACT — SYSTEMIC COST TRANSMISSION
Hezbollah’s influence extends beyond geopolitical dynamics into global economic systems that directly affect consumers.
Conflict scenarios involving Hezbollah have historically contributed to oil price increases ranging from 5 to 15 percent during escalation periods. These price increases do not remain confined to energy markets. They propagate through transportation networks, manufacturing costs, and global supply chains.
In addition, instability in the region increases maritime insurance premiums, raises the cost of international shipping, and reduces investment flows into affected areas.
The transmission mechanism is direct and measurable. Increased conflict risk leads to higher energy prices, which disrupt supply chains and ultimately result in higher costs for consumers.
Consumers do not interact with Hezbollah directly. However, they absorb the economic consequences of the instability it produces.
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS — WHY THE SYSTEM PERSISTS
Hezbollah’s durability is structural rather than incidental.
The organization simultaneously satisfies all four key variables required for long-term survivability: military capability, financial sustainability, political integration, and external sponsorship.
These variables interact to create a self-reinforcing system. Military power enables political influence. Political influence reinforces legitimacy. Legitimacy supports financial flows. Financial flows sustain military power.
Single-domain strategies consistently fail against this structure. Military action may degrade capabilities but often strengthens legitimacy narratives. Financial sanctions disrupt formal channels but are circumvented through informal networks. Political isolation can increase internal cohesion rather than weaken it.
Historical data indicates that organizations subjected to partial pressure recover between 60 and 80 percent of their operational capacity within three to five years.¹⁶
WHAT MUST BE DONE — SYSTEM-LEVEL DISRUPTION STRATEGY
Effective disruption of Hezbollah requires simultaneous pressure across all four structural variables.
Supply chain disruption must target the Iran–Syria–Lebanon corridor that enables weapons transfers and logistical support. Financial enforcement must extend beyond sanctions to include aggressive targeting of illicit global financial networks. Political decoupling must focus on strengthening alternative governance structures within Lebanon to reduce Hezbollah’s legitimacy. External sponsorship pressure must directly address the state-level support mechanisms that sustain Hezbollah’s long-term operations.
Partial or isolated measures will not produce lasting results. They will produce temporary degradation followed by recovery.
ESCALATION PATHWAY — SYSTEM-DRIVEN CONFLICT
Conflict involving Hezbollah follows a predictable escalation pattern.
At T+0, a triggering event such as a localized strike or confrontation initiates instability. Between T+7 and T+30, sustained exchanges increase in intensity. Between T+30 and T+90, escalation expands regionally, often involving Iran-linked actors.
The system-level effects include volatility in energy markets, increased global shipping costs, regional economic contraction, and heightened risk to civilian infrastructure.
No single actor controls escalation within this system. Iran influences events but does not command them. Hezbollah operates with autonomy. Israel responds independently based on its own security doctrine.
The result is a system in which deterrence exists, but stability does not.
FINAL CONCLUSION — POWER WITHOUT ACCOUNTABILITY
Hezbollah represents a new model of power in the modern geopolitical environment.
It operates simultaneously across military, political, and economic domains. It maintains legitimacy while avoiding full accountability. It exerts influence without assuming responsibility for state-level governance outcomes.
As long as external sponsorship and internal political integration remain intact, Hezbollah will not decline. It will adapt, expand, and continue to shape regional outcomes.
The central question is no longer whether Hezbollah can be contained.
The central question is whether the system that sustains it will be dismantled—or allowed to compound.
FOOTNOTES

United Nations, Charter of the United Nations (1945).
Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2026.
International Crisis Group, Hezbollah and the Lebanese State.
Kenneth Katzman, Congressional Research Service, Iran’s Foreign Policy.
Matthew Levitt, Hezbollah: The Global Footprint (Georgetown University Press, 2013).
UK Parliament, House of Commons Library, Hezbollah and Lebanon, 2024.
Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS, Hezbollah Military Capabilities.
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israeli Strategic Assessments.
U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism, 2024–2025.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Oil Market Impacts of Geopolitical Risk (2024).
International Energy Agency, Middle East Conflict Assessments (2023).
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (2024).
Lloyd’s of London, Maritime Risk Reports (2024).
World Bank, Middle East Economic Update (2023).
Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index (2026).
U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment (2025).

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Terrorist Power Structures In The Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

2026-06-07 / JaFaJ

A SYSTEM-LEVEL REPORT ON ORGANIZATIONS, CAPABILITIES, FUNDING, AND STATE RESPONSE — EXPANDED DOCTRINAL EDITION
IN A NUTSHELL
The central question facing policymakers, analysts, and observers is not simply which terrorist organizations exist in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but which of these organizations possess the structural capacity to endure, evolve, and shape regional and global outcomes over extended time horizons.
Modern terrorism in the MENA region operates within a fragmented legal and geopolitical environment in which sovereignty limits enforcement, state interests override uniform counterterrorism standards, and non-state actors exploit these structural gaps to build durable and adaptive systems of power.¹
The most consequential insight is that the most dangerous organizations are not those that conduct the highest number of attacks or generate the most immediate violence, but those that successfully integrate military capability, financial sustainability, supply chains, political influence, and external sponsorship into a cohesive and self-reinforcing system.
This report expands that conclusion into a governing framework.
GOVERNING FRAMEWORK — THE FOUR-VARIABLE DURABILITY MODEL
Across all major organizations analyzed in this report, four variables consistently determine long-term survivability and strategic impact.
Military capability refers not only to the possession of weapons, but to the ability to organize, deploy, and sustain violence across time and geography. Financial sustainability refers to access to diversified and resilient funding streams that can survive sanctions, disruption, and territorial loss. Political integration reflects the degree to which an organization is embedded within, influences, or constrains state institutions. External sponsorship refers to direct or indirect support from state actors, including funding, weapons, intelligence, and diplomatic protection.
These variables do not operate independently. They interact dynamically to form a system in which each component reinforces the others.
Military capability enables political leverage. Political leverage reinforces legitimacy. Legitimacy sustains financial flows. Financial flows maintain military capability. External sponsorship stabilizes all four variables simultaneously.
Empirical data from the Global Terrorism Index and intelligence assessments indicates that organizations possessing three or more of these variables demonstrate survival rates exceeding 70 percent beyond a decade, while those possessing only one or two variables are significantly more likely to fragment or collapse within five to seven years.²
This model is not descriptive. It is predictive, and it explains why some organizations persist despite sustained counterterrorism pressure.
THE ISLAMIC STATE — FROM TERRITORIAL CONTROL TO NETWORK RESILIENCE
The Islamic State (ISIS) represents one of the most important case studies in modern terrorism because it demonstrates both the rise of a territorial terrorist entity and its transformation into a decentralized network following military defeat.
At its peak between 2014 and 2017, ISIS controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria, governed millions of people, and generated billions of dollars in revenue through oil sales, taxation, extortion, and black-market activities.³ This level of control temporarily allowed ISIS to satisfy all four durability variables.
Following coordinated military campaigns by Iraq, Syria, and a U.S.-led coalition, ISIS lost its territorial holdings and much of its formal revenue base. However, the organization did not disappear. Instead, it adapted into a decentralized insurgent network with an estimated 12,000 to 18,000 fighters operating across multiple regions.⁴
Its financial base contracted significantly, with current estimates placing its annual operating budget between $10 million and $50 million, supported by extortion, smuggling, and hidden reserves accumulated during its territorial phase.⁶
The critical insight is structural. ISIS lost territory, but it retained elements of military capability and network cohesion. As a result, it transitioned from a state-like entity into a persistent insurgent system.
This demonstrates a core principle: the removal of one variable weakens an organization, but does not eliminate it if other variables remain intact.
AL-QAEDA — THE LONG-DURATION NETWORK MODEL
Al-Qaeda represents a fundamentally different model of terrorist organization, one built on decentralization, ideological cohesion, and long-term strategic patience.
Rather than relying on territorial control, Al-Qaeda operates through a network of regional affiliates that maintain operational independence while adhering to a shared ideological framework. Estimates suggest that Al-Qaeda and its affiliates maintain between 15,000 and 28,000 members globally.⁴
Its funding model is diversified and resilient, including donations from sympathizers, illicit trade, kidnapping-for-ransom operations, and localized taxation in areas where affiliates exert influence.³ This diversification reduces vulnerability to targeted financial disruption.
Al-Qaeda’s weapon systems are conventional but effective, including small arms, explosives, mortars, and increasingly drones for reconnaissance and limited offensive use.⁶ These weapons are sourced through black markets, conflict spillover, and local alliances.
The key structural advantage of Al-Qaeda is its decentralization. It does not require territorial control to survive. It regenerates through network adaptation.
This demonstrates that durability is not dependent on scale.
It is dependent on structure.
HEZBOLLAH — THE FULL-SPECTRUM HYBRID SYSTEM
Hezbollah represents the most advanced and complete integration of the four durability variables in the MENA region.
The organization maintains between 20,000 and 30,000 active fighters, supported by a large reserve force, and possesses a weapons arsenal exceeding 100,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided systems.⁷ Its military capabilities are further enhanced by drones, anti-ship missiles, anti-tank systems, and hardened underground infrastructure.
Its annual budget is widely estimated to exceed $700 million, with the majority of funding provided directly by Iran.⁹ Additional funding is generated through commercial enterprises, charitable networks, and international financial operations.
Hezbollah’s political integration within Lebanon allows it to influence government formation, constrain policy decisions, and maintain a parallel governance structure that includes social services, communications systems, and intelligence networks.
External sponsorship from Iran provides strategic depth, advanced weapons systems, training, and diplomatic protection.
This combination creates a system that is not only durable, but self-reinforcing. Hezbollah is not simply a militant organization. It is an embedded power structure with near-state functionality.
HAMAS — HYBRID GOVERNANCE UNDER CONSTRAINT
Hamas operates as both a militant organization and a governing authority within Gaza, creating a hybrid model in which governance and militancy coexist.
Its military wing is estimated to consist of 20,000 to 40,000 fighters, and its annual budget exceeds $300 million.¹⁰ Funding sources include external state support, taxation within Gaza, and international donations.
Hamas employs a range of weapons systems, including rockets, mortars, small arms, and an extensive tunnel network used for both military operations and logistical support.
Unlike Hezbollah, Hamas operates under significant external constraints, including blockade conditions that limit access to resources. However, these constraints have led to the development of domestic production capabilities, particularly in rocket manufacturing and explosives.
Hamas demonstrates that governance does not eliminate militancy. Instead, it can reinforce it by providing legitimacy, resource access, and population control.
AQAP AND THE ROLE OF STATE FAILURE
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) operates primarily in Yemen, where prolonged instability has created an environment conducive to sustained militant activity.
The group maintains between 3,000 and 7,000 fighters and derives funding from kidnapping, smuggling, and localized taxation.³ Its weapons are sourced through local markets and conflict spillover.
AQAP’s persistence highlights the relationship between state weakness and terrorist durability. In environments where governance is weak, enforcement is limited, and conflict is ongoing, even relatively small organizations can sustain long-term operations.
This reinforces a critical principle: weak states do not eliminate threats. They sustain them.
IRAN-ALIGNED MILITIAS IN IRAQ — HYBRID STATE INTEGRATION
Iran-aligned militias in Iraq represent a hybrid model in which non-state actors are partially integrated into state structures.
These groups collectively command tens of thousands of fighters and receive significant support from Iran. They possess weapons ranging from small arms to rockets and drones, and in some cases, more advanced systems.
Their integration into Iraqi political and security structures provides both legitimacy and protection, making them particularly difficult to counter through traditional means.
This model represents a convergence between state and non-state power.
STATE RESPONSE — STRUCTURAL LIMITATIONS
States across the region have deployed military force, sanctions, intelligence operations, and diplomatic pressure to counter these organizations.
While these efforts have achieved tactical successes, they have produced limited long-term impact.
The reason is structural.
Military operations degrade capability but do not eliminate funding or ideology. Financial sanctions disrupt formal systems but are circumvented through informal and illicit networks. Political isolation can reduce external legitimacy but often increases internal cohesion.
Each strategy targets a single variable.
The system operates across four.
As a result, partial pressure produces temporary disruption followed by recovery.
EXPANDED STRATEGIC ANALYSIS — SYSTEM-LEVEL DISRUPTION REQUIREMENTS
To effectively counter terrorist power structures in MENA, strategies must operate across all four durability variables simultaneously.
Military operations must target not only fighters, but leadership, logistics, and supply chains. Financial disruption must extend beyond sanctions to include enforcement against illicit global networks. Political strategies must focus on strengthening alternative governance structures. External sponsorship must be addressed through direct pressure on state actors providing support.
Historical data indicates that organizations subjected to partial pressure typically regain between 60 and 80 percent of their operational capacity within three to five years.⁵
Only simultaneous, multi-domain pressure produces sustained degradation.
FUTURE OUTLOOK — THE COMPOUNDING SYSTEM
If current conditions persist, terrorism in the MENA region will not decline. It will stabilize and adapt.
Conflict cycles will continue to repeat, typically every three to seven years, producing recurring patterns of violence, economic disruption, and humanitarian crisis.⁵
Organizations with stable funding and external sponsorship will continue to operate with high survival rates. Their capabilities will evolve, particularly in areas such as precision weaponry, drone warfare, and decentralized operations.
The system will not collapse under current conditions.
It will compound.
FINAL CONCLUSION — SYSTEMS, NOT THREATS
The most important conclusion of this report is structural.
Terrorist organizations in the MENA region are not isolated threats.
They are embedded systems within the regional order.
If state sponsors continue to fund, arm, and protect these organizations, instability will persist and expand. If multi-domain strategies are applied consistently across all durability variables, measurable reductions in both operational capacity and long-term survivability are possible.
The final reality is direct:
Terrorism in MENA will not end through containment.
It will either be systematically dismantled—
or it will become a permanent feature of the geopolitical system.
FOOTNOTES

United Nations, Charter of the United Nations, 1945.
Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2026.
Daniel Byman, Brookings Institution.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment.
Institute for Economics and Peace Reports.
International conflict and intelligence assessments.
Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS.
International Crisis Group Reports.
Congressional Research Service, Iran proxy networks.
U.S. intelligence assessments on Hamas.

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Introduction: System of Power: Terror, State Failure And The Costs To Global Consumers

2026-06-07 / JaFaJ

In Summary, this edition is built around a single conclusion:
Modern terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa is no longer defined by isolated groups or individual actors. It is defined by systems of power that combine military capability, financial networks, political integration, and state sponsorship into durable structures that are resistant to traditional enforcement.
These systems do not collapse under pressure.
They adapt, persist, and expand.
The result is not just regional instability. It is a continuous transmission of risk into global markets, supply chains, and consumer prices.
THE CORE SHIFT — FROM GROUPS TO SYSTEMS
For decades, terrorism has been analyzed through a group-based framework. Analysts identified organizations, tracked leadership, and measured attacks.
That framework is no longer sufficient.
The dominant actors in the MENA region have evolved beyond isolated organizations into integrated systems that operate across multiple domains simultaneously. These systems combine armed force, political influence, financial infrastructure, and external sponsorship in ways that make them structurally durable.
This shift changes the nature of the problem.
You are no longer dealing with organizations that can be dismantled through targeted action.
You are dealing with systems that must be disrupted across multiple dimensions at once.
THE FOUR-VARIABLE MODEL — HOW THESE SYSTEMS SURVIVE
Across all major actors examined in this edition, a consistent pattern emerges.
Organizations that persist over time satisfy four conditions:
They maintain military capability, allowing them to generate and sustain violence. They possess financial sustainability, ensuring that operations continue even under pressure. They achieve political integration, allowing them to influence or constrain state institutions. They benefit from external sponsorship, providing protection, resources, and strategic depth.
When these four variables are present simultaneously, the organization transitions into a system.
Once that transition occurs, traditional counterterrorism tools become insufficient.
WHY ENFORCEMENT FAILS
The persistence of these systems is not due to lack of awareness or intelligence failure.
It is due to structural constraints.
International law is limited by sovereignty. States are unwilling or unable to act uniformly. Non-state actors operate within protected environments. External sponsors shield key organizations from full accountability.
As a result, enforcement mechanisms such as arrest, extradition, and prosecution are frequently ineffective.
In their place, states rely on partial measures such as sanctions, military strikes, and intelligence operations.
These measures degrade capability.
They do not dismantle systems.
THE ESCALATION ENGINE — HOW INSTABILITY SPREADS
These systems are not static. They are interconnected.
Hezbollah operates within Iran’s regional strategy. Hamas functions within a localized but externally supported conflict environment. ISIS persists through decentralized insurgency. Al-Qaeda regenerates through network adaptation.
Actions in one system trigger responses in another.
This creates a continuous escalation engine in which localized conflict can expand into regional instability and, under certain conditions, global economic disruption.
No single actor controls this system.
That is what makes it dangerous.
THE CONSUMER DIMENSION — WHY THIS MATTERS BEYOND POLICY
The consequences of these systems are not confined to the region.
They are transmitted globally through energy markets, trade routes, and supply chains.
Instability in the Middle East affects oil prices. Oil price fluctuations affect transportation and manufacturing costs. These costs propagate through supply chains and ultimately reach consumers in the form of higher prices.
This is the hidden reality of modern conflict.
Consumers do not engage with these systems.
But they pay for them.
WHAT THIS EDITION DOES
This edition breaks the system down into its core components.
It examines the structure of terrorist power in MENA, identifying the variables that determine durability and influence. It analyzes Hezbollah as a parallel state embedded within Lebanon and integrated into Iran’s regional strategy. It evaluates the structural failure of negotiations that attempt to merge incompatible conflict systems. It identifies key operators and leadership figures, not as isolated individuals, but as components within broader systems of power.
Each article is a piece of a larger model.
Together, they form a single conclusion.
FINAL FRAME — SYSTEMS WILL PERSIST UNLESS DISMANTLED
The most important takeaway is not operational.
It is structural.
These systems will not collapse under current conditions.
They will persist, adapt, and expand.
If state sponsors continue to fund and protect them, they will become permanent features of the regional order. If countermeasures remain fragmented and single-domain, they will fail to produce lasting change.
The choice is not between stability and instability.
The choice is between systemic disruption and systemic persistence.
BOTTOM LINE
This is no longer a fight against terrorism as an isolated threat.
This is a confrontation with integrated systems of power.
And those systems are winning.

Introduction: System of Power: Terror, State Failure And The Costs To Global Consumers Read More »

JaFaJ Newsletter – MENA Special Edition

2026-06-07 / JaFaJ

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION; SYSTEMS OF POWER: TERROR, STATE FAILURE, AND THE COST TO GLOBAL CONSUMERS: terrorism is no longer actor-based but system-based. It establishes the four-variable model, introduces the concept of enforcement failure, and connects regional instability directly to global economic and consumer impact.
TERRORIST POWER STRUCTURES IN MENA: A System-Level Doctrine on Durability, Control, and Structural Instability
HEZBOLLAH: THE PARALLEL STATE OF LEBANON: Law, Power, and Hybrid System Control
HEZBOLLAH AND THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENT: Influence Without Ownership — Political Power in a Fragmented State
HEZBOLLAH LEADERSHIP: POWER, STRUCTURE, FUNDING, AND ENFORCEMENT FAILURE: A System-Level Breakdown of Why Leaders Persist
IS IT FAIR FOR IRAN TO TIE PEACE WITH THE UNITED STATES TO HEZBOLLAH?: A Structural Failure in Diplomacy
TOP INDIVIDUAL TERROR OPERATORS BY MENA THEATER: A Tiered System of Network Power and Operational Risk
JAFAJ MENA LEGISLATIVE REVIEW — JUNE 7, 2026: Law, Capital, and the Emergence of Power-Based Markets

JaFaJ Newsletter – MENA Special Edition Read More »

Iran and The Muslim Brotherhood

2026-06-03 / JaFaJ

Iran’s Shadow Network: Power, Proxies and the Limits of Control
IN A NUTSHELL
Iran has built one of the most effective indirect power systems in modern geopolitics—but it’s not as controlled as it looks.

Iran projects influence primarily through proxy groups, avoiding direct war while still pressuring adversaries like Israel, the United States, and regional rivals.
These proxies vary widely in loyalty and control, ranging from tightly integrated (Hezbollah) to loosely aligned (Hamas, Houthis) to largely symbolic (Muslim Brotherhood).
Hezbollah is the centerpiece, functioning almost as an extension of Iranian military strategy, with deep financial, ideological, and operational integration.
Hamas and the Houthis are capability partners, benefiting from Iranian funding, weapons, and training—but retaining independent agendas.
Iran’s broader network—including Iraqi militias and Palestinian Islamic Jihad—extends its reach across multiple conflict zones simultaneously.
This system allows Iran to apply constant, multi-front pressure without triggering full-scale war.

The critical constraint:
Iran’s network is powerful but uneven. It can influence behavior—but cannot fully control it.
Bottom line:
Iran has engineered a distributed system of influence that is highly effective in sustained conflict, but structurally unstable. In a crisis, the same decentralization that gives Iran flexibility could trigger escalation it cannot contain.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Iran has built a multi-layered proxy network across the Middle East and North Africa that combines militant force, political influence, and ideological outreach to expand its regional power while avoiding direct state-to-state conflict.¹

Iran’s primary strategy is to project power indirectly through non-state actors, allowing it to challenge Israel, the United States, and regional rivals without triggering full-scale war.²
• Tehran provides varying levels of support—including funding, weapons, training, and technical expertise—depending on the group’s strategic value and ideological alignment.³
• Hezbollah represents Iran’s most developed and controlled proxy, functioning as a fully integrated military and political extension of Iranian power, with U.S. estimates placing annual Iranian support at approximately $700 million.⁴
• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad receive significant military and financial support, particularly in rocket development and battlefield tactics, including the transfer of Iranian-designed systems such as the Fajr-5 missile.⁵
• The Houthi movement in Yemen has evolved into a capable regional threat due to Iranian missile, drone, and logistical support, with UN investigations confirming the presence of Iranian-origin systems in Houthi arsenals.⁶
• Iran’s relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is limited and primarily ideological, with minimal operational or financial integration due to sectarian and geopolitical constraints.⁷
• Across all cases, Iran’s objective is consistent: build a distributed network of aligned actors capable of applying sustained pressure on adversaries across multiple fronts.⁸

Bottom line: Iran has built a distributed proxy system that maximizes regional influence while minimizing direct confrontation, but its uneven control over these actors creates a powerful yet inherently unstable structure with escalating risks that may exceed its ability to manage.⁹

The chart below illustrates these relationships and major events:
“IRAN’S PROXY NETWORK: CONTROL, CAPABILITY, AND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION”

Sources: Iran’s multifaceted sponsorship is documented by U.S. and UN reports, think-tank studies, and news outlets[1][2][3]. Key claims (e.g. funding amounts, arms transfers, training roles) are footnoted in Chicago style below.

IRAN AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
Iran’s relationship with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has been historically inconsistent and remains strategically limited, defined more by ideological outreach than by operational partnership.¹⁰
Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Muslim Brotherhood leaders initially identified common ground with Iran in opposing secular Arab regimes and Western influence.¹¹ Iranian leadership reciprocated by establishing formal channels of engagement with Sunni Islamist movements; Ayatollah Khomeini appointed a “Director for Islamic Affairs” to liaise with non-Shia groups, and Iranian institutions hosted recurring interfaith forums such as the Islamic Unity Conferences, which included Brotherhood-affiliated figures.¹² Iran also translated and promoted the works of influential Sunni Islamist thinkers, including Sayyid Qutb, as part of a broader ideological alignment strategy.¹³
Despite these efforts, meaningful cooperation has remained constrained by structural ideological differences and geopolitical realities. The Muslim Brotherhood rejects Iran’s doctrine of velayat-e faqih (clerical rule), and its leadership has consistently avoided actions that would jeopardize relationships with key Sunni state sponsors, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar.¹⁴ These tensions became evident during Egypt’s 2012–2013 Muslim Brotherhood government, when Iranian officials portrayed President Mohamed Morsi’s engagement with Tehran as a strategic breakthrough, while Morsi himself publicly reassured Sunni allies and distanced his administration from Iran’s regional positions, including its support for the Assad regime in Syria.¹⁵
After the 2013 Egyptian military coup, Iran renewed outreach efforts by engaging exiled Brotherhood members and reviving multilateral religious dialogue platforms.¹⁶ However, the Brotherhood declined formal alignment, reflecting what analysts describe as “mismatched expectations” driven by political risk and ideological incompatibility.¹⁷ There is no credible evidence that Iran has provided the Brotherhood with significant financial or military support; engagement has remained largely rhetorical and diplomatic.¹⁸
Iran’s approach to the Brotherhood therefore relies primarily on soft-power mechanisms, including religious diplomacy, symbolic alignment on issues such as Palestinian resistance, and selective engagement with affiliated figures.¹⁹ In contrast, the Brotherhood’s strategic focus has remained domestic and political rather than transnational and militant, limiting its utility within Iran’s broader proxy network.²⁰
As a result, the Muslim Brotherhood does not function as a core component of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” Its weakened political position following post-2013 crackdowns in Egypt and the Gulf has further reduced its relevance as a strategic partner.²¹ Regional governments—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt—have designated the Brotherhood as a terrorist organization and view Iranian engagement with it as a destabilizing threat.²² The United States, while not designating the Brotherhood as a whole, continues to target individuals and affiliated entities involved in extremist financing.²³
IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH
Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah represents the most complete and operationally integrated proxy partnership in its regional strategy, combining financial dependency, military coordination, and ideological alignment into a unified system of influence.²⁴
Hezbollah was established in 1982 with direct support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which provided its founding leadership with funding, ideology, and military training.²⁵ Initially a small militia to expel Israeli forces from Lebanon, Hezbollah grew into Iran’s most powerful proxy state.²⁶ Even as Hezbollah built its own domestic Lebanese base, Iran maintained influence over strategic decision-making.²⁷
Iran’s financial support to Hezbollah is substantial and sustained. U.S. officials estimate that Tehran provides approximately $700 million annually.²⁸ These funds primarily support Hezbollah’s regional military operations rather than domestic Lebanese activities.²⁹
Military cooperation between Iran and Hezbollah has expanded over decades into a highly coordinated system. The IRGC has supplied advanced weaponry and training.³⁰ During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah operated as a forward expeditionary force under IRGC direction.³¹ Iran has also facilitated the transfer of advanced missile systems and drone technology.³²
Ideologically, Hezbollah is aligned with Iran’s doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih.³³ Iranian and Hezbollah media platforms consistently promote coordinated messaging.³⁴ This ideological cohesion reinforces operational unity and long-term strategic alignment.³⁵
Operationally, Hezbollah and Iran’s Qods Force function as an integrated network across multiple theaters.³⁶ Intelligence sharing and joint planning are routine.³⁷
Hezbollah’s political role within Lebanon further amplifies Iran’s influence.³⁸ Its control over southern Lebanon provides Iran with strategic depth against Israel.³⁹
Iranian support has significantly enhanced Hezbollah’s military capabilities, transforming it into one of the most powerful non-state armed groups globally.⁴⁰
International responses have focused on containment and disruption, including sanctions, military action, and intelligence coordination.⁴¹⁴²⁴³⁴⁴⁴⁵

IRAN AND HAMAS
Iran’s relationship with Hamas is best understood as a pragmatic and fluctuating partnership, driven by shared opposition to Israel but constrained by ideological differences and shifting regional alliances.⁴⁶
Iran’s engagement with Hamas began in the early 1990s, when the Sunni Islamist movement—an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood—aligned with Tehran on anti-Israel objectives during the First Intifada.⁴⁷ This relationship deepened significantly after Israel deported approximately 400 Hamas members to Lebanon in 1992, where Iranian and Hezbollah operatives provided training in explosives and militant tactics that later influenced Hamas operations.⁴⁸ Iran subsequently committed financial support—estimated at up to $50 million annually—and facilitated the development of Hamas’s early rocket capabilities.⁴⁹
Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Iran maintained a close partnership with Hamas, often operating through Hezbollah as an intermediary.⁵⁰ Iranian funding supported both Hamas’s social infrastructure and its military wing, while coordinated smuggling networks attempted to deliver weapons into Gaza.⁵¹ However, this relationship fractured in 2011 when Hamas leadership broke with the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, prompting Iran to reduce or suspend support.⁵² The alliance has since partially recovered, but it remains conditional and subject to geopolitical alignment.⁵³
Iran’s financial support to Hamas, while less transparent than its backing of Hezbollah, remains significant. Hamas leadership has publicly described Iran as its primary source of military and financial assistance, particularly following renewed cooperation after 2017.⁵⁴ These funds have supported internal security structures, weapons procurement, and the development of indigenous manufacturing capabilities within Gaza.⁵⁵
Military assistance has been the most consequential dimension of the relationship. Iranian and Hezbollah advisors trained Hamas operatives in the 1990s, and Iran supplied increasingly advanced weapons systems over time, including Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets.⁵⁶ By the 2012 Gaza conflict, Hamas demonstrated the ability to strike Tel Aviv using Iranian-designed systems, marking a major escalation in capability.⁵⁷ More recent conflicts have revealed continued Iranian influence, including improvements in rocket range, firing rates, and the introduction of drone technologies modeled on Iranian designs.⁵⁸
Ideologically, Hamas’s relationship with Iran is tactical rather than doctrinal. While Hamas leaders periodically express alignment with Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the organization has historically adjusted its rhetoric to maintain support from Sunni backers such as Qatar and Turkey.⁵⁹ This dual alignment reflects Hamas’s need to balance financial dependence with political legitimacy in the broader Sunni Arab world.
Operational coordination between Iran and Hamas is indirect but strategically significant. Iran relies on regional smuggling networks to transfer weapons and expertise into Gaza, often through intermediary routes in Sudan, Libya, and Egypt.⁶⁰ Hamas also participates in a broader pattern of coordinated escalation with Iranian-aligned groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, suggesting an emerging multi-front pressure strategy against Israel.⁶¹ While Hamas retains independent command authority, its tactical evolution reflects sustained Iranian influence.
Iran’s support has materially transformed Hamas’s operational behavior. The organization has shifted from reliance on suicide bombings in the 1990s and early 2000s to sustained rocket warfare and drone deployment, significantly increasing the scale and frequency of conflict with Israel.⁶² This transformation has expanded Hamas’s deterrent capacity but has also intensified civilian risk and regional instability. At the same time, dependence on Iranian support has introduced constraints; for example, funding disruptions following Hamas’s break with Assad forced the group to seek alternative sponsors, illustrating the limits of the partnership.⁶³
Despite these dynamics, Hamas is not a fully controlled Iranian proxy. Unlike Hezbollah, it maintains independent political objectives and diversified funding sources. Iran’s influence is therefore substantial but not absolute, functioning through capability-building rather than direct command.⁶⁴
International responses have focused on limiting this relationship. Israel enforces a blockade on Gaza to restrict weapons flows, while Egypt targets smuggling tunnels and border networks.⁶⁵ The United States and its allies impose sanctions on Hamas financiers, including those linked to Iranian networks, and many Western and Arab states designate Hamas as a terrorist organization.⁶⁶
Hamas is therefore not a controlled proxy, but a strategically enabled actor whose behavior aligns with Iran’s interests when incentives converge—and diverges when they do not.

IRAN AND ANSAR ALLAH (HOUTHIS)
Iran’s relationship with Ansar Allah (the Houthi movement) represents a rapidly evolving proxy model, characterized by increasing military capability transfer and operational coordination, but still lacking the full ideological and command integration seen with Hezbollah.⁶⁷
Iran’s engagement with the Houthis began in the 2000s and intensified after 2009, when Tehran provided limited support during early conflicts between Houthi forces and the Yemeni government.⁶⁸ The relationship deepened significantly following the Houthi seizure of Sana’a in 2014 and the subsequent Saudi-led intervention in 2015, at which point Iran expanded its role by deploying advisors from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and facilitating Hezbollah training support within Yemen.⁶⁹
Military assistance constitutes the core of Iran’s influence. United Nations investigations have repeatedly documented Iranian arms transfers to the Houthis in violation of international sanctions, including ballistic missile systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and advanced guidance components consistent with Iranian designs.⁷⁰ Weapons recovered from interdicted shipments—such as anti-tank missiles and cruise missile components bearing Farsi markings—demonstrate direct supply links.⁷¹ These capabilities have enabled the Houthis to conduct long-range strikes, including attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019 that UN experts assessed as beyond indigenous Yemeni capabilities.⁷²
Iran has also provided technical expertise and training. U.S. sanctions actions confirm that IRGC personnel have supported Houthi missile development and deployment, while Hezbollah operatives have assisted with training in guerrilla warfare and advanced weapons systems.⁷³
Financial support, while less transparent, plays a complementary role. UN reporting indicates that Iran has facilitated illicit fuel shipments to Houthi-controlled areas, generating revenue streams that fund military operations and governance structures.⁷⁴
Ideologically, the relationship is pragmatic rather than doctrinal. The Houthis adhere to Zaydi Shiism, which differs from Iran’s Twelver system, limiting deep ideological integration.⁷⁵ However, Iran has successfully reinforced shared anti-American and anti-Saudi narratives.⁷⁶
Operational coordination between Iran and the Houthis has increased in both scale and sophistication.⁷⁷ Reports of Hezbollah-linked personnel assisting in missile launches and training further indicate integration into Iran’s wider proxy network.⁷⁸
Politically, Iran’s support has enabled the Houthis to consolidate control over northern Yemen.⁷⁹
The impact of Iranian support on Houthi capabilities has been significant, enabling missile and drone warfare capabilities.⁸⁰
International responses have focused on containment, including military action, sanctions, and naval patrols.⁸¹⁸²⁸³
The Houthis function less as a traditional proxy and more as a force multiplier, extending Iran’s reach into economic and maritime domains without requiring full ideological alignment.

OTHER GROUPS IN THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE
Beyond its primary partnerships with Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, Iran supports a broader network of secondary actors.⁸⁴
Iraqi Shia militias represent one of the most significant components of this network.⁸⁵ Iran has provided funding, weapons, and training through IRGC channels.⁸⁶ These groups exert influence over Iraqi political structures.⁸⁷ Iran’s objective is to maintain strategic depth and regional influence.⁸⁸
Palestinian Islamic Jihad operates as a more tightly aligned partner with consistent Iranian support.⁸⁹ Its military capabilities are directly linked to Iranian backing.⁹⁰
Iran’s engagement with Sunni jihadist groups remains limited and tactical.⁹¹ These interactions are constrained by ideological divisions.⁹²
Iran has also maintained relationships with Islamist actors in Africa, particularly Sudan prior to 2019.⁹³ Residual connections remain, though influence is limited.⁹⁴
Significant uncertainty surrounds aspects of Iran’s broader network.⁹⁵
Regional and international responses include sanctions, military operations, and diplomatic coordination.⁹⁶⁹⁷⁹⁸⁹⁹
Taken together, these actors reinforce Iran’s broader strategy by expanding operational reach across multiple theaters.¹⁰⁰
POWER VS CONTROL: WHERE IRAN DOMINATES—AND WHERE IT DOES NOT
Iran’s proxy network is often described as cohesive, but in practice it operates along a spectrum ranging from direct control to loose alignment. Understanding this distinction is critical, because Iran’s ability to project power does not always translate into reliable command authority.
At the highest level of control, Hezbollah functions as a near-extension of Iranian strategic command. Its financial dependence, ideological alignment with Iran’s doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, and decades of integrated military coordination make it the most predictable and reliable component of Iran’s network. In operational terms, Hezbollah acts less like an independent proxy and more like a forward-deployed arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Hamas occupies a middle position, where influence is substantial but control is conditional. Iran has played a decisive role in developing Hamas’s military capabilities, particularly in rocket systems and tactical doctrine. However, Hamas retains independent political objectives and has demonstrated a willingness to break alignment when its regional interests diverge, as seen during the Syrian civil war. This creates a relationship defined by leverage rather than command.
The Houthi movement represents an emerging but still incomplete proxy model. Iranian support has significantly enhanced its missile and drone capabilities, enabling it to operate as a regional threat actor. However, ideological differences and localized political priorities limit Iran’s ability to exercise full control. The relationship is best understood as capability transfer combined with opportunistic coordination, rather than centralized direction.
Iraqi Shia militias fall into a hybrid category. While many groups maintain strong ties to Iran and receive direct support, they are embedded within Iraq’s domestic political and security structures. This dual role creates both influence and friction, as local priorities can override Iranian strategic objectives.
At the outer edge of the network, the Muslim Brotherhood represents minimal operational value. Iran’s engagement is largely ideological and diplomatic, with no credible evidence of sustained financial or military integration. As a result, the Brotherhood does not function as a controllable proxy but rather as a potential channel for soft-power influence within Sunni political movements.
This distribution reveals a fundamental constraint in Iran’s strategy: its network is powerful but uneven. While Iran can reliably activate certain actors, particularly Hezbollah, it cannot uniformly dictate behavior across all partners. This creates inherent unpredictability, especially in multi-front escalation scenarios where independently motivated groups may act on parallel—but not centrally coordinated—timelines.

RISK MATRIX: PROXY CAPABILITY, ESCALATION LIKELIHOOD, AND REGIONAL IMPACT
Iran’s proxy network introduces a layered risk environment in which capability, intent, and control vary significantly across actors. Evaluating these variables together provides a clearer picture of escalation pathways and potential regional consequences.
Hezbollah represents the highest-impact risk vector. Its advanced missile arsenal, combat experience, and deep integration with Iranian strategy create a scenario in which escalation with Israel could rapidly expand into a large-scale regional conflict. While Iran maintains strong influence over Hezbollah’s strategic posture, the group’s forward position on Israel’s border means that localized incidents could trigger broader engagement with limited warning time.
Hamas presents a high-frequency but more contained risk profile. Its capacity for sustained rocket fire and periodic escalation cycles generates recurring conflict with Israel, but its geographic confinement and partial independence from Iran reduce the likelihood of immediate region-wide escalation. However, coordinated action alongside other Iranian-aligned groups increases the risk of multi-front pressure scenarios.
The Houthi movement introduces a different category of risk centered on infrastructure and economic disruption. Its demonstrated ability to conduct long-range missile and drone attacks against Gulf energy assets and maritime routes elevates the threat to global energy markets and shipping security. These actions may occur independently or as part of broader regional escalation patterns linked to Iranian strategic signaling.
Iraqi Shia militias create persistent low-to-medium intensity risk, particularly for U.S. personnel and assets in Iraq and Syria. Their integration into local political systems complicates deterrence, as retaliation risks destabilizing Iraqi governance structures while failing to fully disrupt militia activity.
The Muslim Brotherhood represents minimal direct security risk within this framework. Its lack of military capability and absence of operational integration with Iran limit its role to political and ideological influence. However, shifts in regional political conditions could elevate its relevance as a platform for indirect influence.
Taken together, these dynamics reveal a system defined by asymmetric escalation risk. High-capability actors such as Hezbollah pose low-frequency but catastrophic risks, while groups like Hamas generate frequent but more contained conflicts. Meanwhile, emerging actors such as the Houthis expand the battlespace into economic and maritime domains. The absence of uniform control across this network increases the probability of misaligned actions, where escalation by one actor triggers broader conflict without centralized coordination.

CONCLUSION: A POWERFUL BUT UNSTABLE SYSTEM
Iran has successfully constructed one of the most sophisticated proxy networks in the modern geopolitical landscape, enabling it to project power across multiple regions while avoiding direct state-to-state confrontation. Through a combination of financial support, military capability transfer, and ideological alignment, Tehran has built a system that extends its influence far beyond its borders.
However, this network is not uniformly controlled. Its effectiveness depends on a small number of highly reliable actors—most notably Hezbollah—while other relationships, including those with Hamas and the Houthis, are shaped by conditional alignment and shifting regional dynamics. At the outer edge, organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood provide little operational value, functioning primarily as channels of ideological engagement rather than instruments of strategic control.
This imbalance creates a structural vulnerability. Iran’s ability to generate pressure across multiple fronts is real, but its capacity to manage escalation across those fronts is limited. In a crisis scenario, independently motivated actors may act in parallel rather than in coordination, increasing the likelihood of unintended escalation. The very decentralization that gives Iran strategic flexibility also introduces unpredictability that it cannot fully control.
The system is therefore best understood as powerful but inherently unstable. It is highly effective at sustaining long-term, low-intensity conflict and applying continuous pressure on adversaries, but it becomes significantly more volatile under conditions of rapid escalation. This dynamic raises the risk of multi-front conflict scenarios that develop faster than any single actor—including Iran—can manage.
Looking forward, the durability of Iran’s proxy network will depend on three factors: sustained financial capacity, continued alignment with key partners, and the ability to avoid escalation thresholds that force direct confrontation with more powerful state actors. Disruption to any of these variables—whether through economic pressure, internal fractures among proxies, or decisive military action—could weaken the system’s cohesion.
The bottom line is clear: Iran’s proxy network is not a monolithic force, but a distributed and uneven architecture of influence. It is capable of shaping regional security dynamics in significant ways, but it carries inherent risks that increase as its reach expands. Understanding both its strengths and its limitations is essential for assessing future conflict trajectories in the Middle East and beyond.

REFERENCES

Ido Levy, How Iran Fuels Hamas Terrorism (Washington Institute, 2021).
Jonathan Schanzer and Ioannis Mantzikos, Hezbollah’s Regional Activities (Washington Institute, 2016).
U.S. Department of the Treasury, sanctions releases.
Joyce Karam, “Iran Pays Hezbollah $700 Million,” The National, 2018.
Daniel Levin, Iran Primer, 2023.
UN Panel of Experts on Yemen, Final Report, 2020.
Badawi and al-Sayyad, Carnegie, 2019.
Schanzer and Mantzikos.
Levy.

10–23. Badawi and al-Sayyad.
24–45. Schanzer, Mantzikos, Karam, IDF, Treasury, UNIFIL (as applicable).
46–66. Levy and Levin (Hamas sources repeated).
67–83. UN Panel, Treasury, AP (Houthis sources repeated).
84–100. Schanzer, Levin, UN, regional reporting (Other groups).

Iran and The Muslim Brotherhood Read More »

JaFaJ MENA Legislative Review – June

2026-06-03 / JaFaJ

JAFAJ MENA LEGISLATIVE REVIEW — JUNE 3, 2026
Legislative • Geopolitical • Market Intelligence
SUMMARY: A structural shift is underway across the Middle East and North Africa.
Legislation is no longer a downstream product of policy—it is now the primary instrument through which governments direct capital, define markets, and assert geopolitical positioning.
The region is separating into two distinct systems:

States that convert policy into enforceable law—and attract capital
• States where politics overrides law—and capital withdraws

This week marks a decisive inflection point.
Israel has entered a legislative disruption cycle following the advancement of Knesset dissolution proceedings, sharply reducing near-term policy visibility.² Egypt continues executing one of the most aggressive legislative modernization programs in the region, systematically reducing friction and engineering investment inflows.³ Morocco remains structurally stable, reinforcing institutional credibility while anchoring long-term infrastructure and water-security investment.⁴
At the same time, Gulf states—particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—are aligning legislation with technology, artificial intelligence, and industrial policy, positioning themselves as global capital destinations, not just regional actors.⁵
Three conclusions now define the region:

Capital follows execution—not intention
• Political stability has become a priced asset
• Governments are pre-selecting winning sectors through law

BOTTOM LINE
Capital is concentrating where law works.
Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are gaining structural advantage.
Israel remains selectively investable—primarily in defense.
Lebanon is effectively outside the investable system.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Investment climate reforms must create a level playing field.”
— Hassan El Khatib, on Egypt’s investment and licensing reform agenda, May 2026.¹
This is not messaging—it is strategy.
Egypt is actively redesigning its legal architecture to compete for capital. The jurisdictions that follow this model will attract investment. Those that do not will lose it—structurally.
LEGISLATIVE INTELLIGENCE
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — KNESSET
Knesset Dissolution Legislation
Status: Passed First Reading (June 2, 2026)
The Knesset voted 106–0 to advance legislation dissolving parliament, initiating a process likely to result in early national elections.² The vote reflects coalition breakdown driven by military service disputes and broader structural political tensions.
LEGISLATIVE SEQUENCE
Coalition fracture
→ Dissolution process
→ Election cycle
→ Legislative slowdown
→ Policy uncertainty
MARKET REALITY
Defense spending holds.
Everything else pauses.
Israel remains a high-capability system—but temporarily unstable at the policy level.
Risk Level: 🔴 HIGH
🇪🇬 EGYPT — HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Competition Law Reform and Investment System Redesign
Status: Approved; Implementation Active
Egypt is executing a coordinated legislative transformation. Competition law amendments strengthen enforcement authority, increase penalties, and clarify merger control frameworks, while licensing reforms reduce administrative friction and accelerate approvals.³
LEGISLATIVE SEQUENCE
Regulatory clarity
→ Faster approvals
→ Increased deal flow
→ Capital inflow expansion
→ Industrial growth
MARKET REALITY
Egypt is not waiting for capital—it is building the legal conditions that force capital to enter.
Risk Level: 🟢 LOW–MEDIUM
🇲🇦 MOROCCO — PARLIAMENT
Governance Reform and Institutional Reinforcement
Status: Enacted (May 2026)
Morocco’s political party governance reform strengthens transparency and institutional oversight, reinforcing long-term policy continuity.⁴
LEGISLATIVE SEQUENCE
Governance clarity
→ Institutional predictability
→ Reduced risk premium
→ Sustained investment
MARKET REALITY
Morocco is not the fastest system.
It is one of the most trusted.
Risk Level: 🟢 LOW
🇯🇴 JORDAN
Status: Stable, Low Legislative Velocity
Jordan maintains institutional stability but lacks reform acceleration.
MARKET REALITY
Stable systems preserve capital.
Fast systems attract it.
Jordan is currently the former.
Risk Level: 🟡 MEDIUM
🇱🇧 LEBANON
Status: Structurally Non-Functional
Lebanon’s legislative system remains constrained by political fragmentation, preventing meaningful reform execution.
LEGISLATIVE SEQUENCE
Institutional breakdown
→ Legislative paralysis
→ Financial instability
→ Capital exit
MARKET REALITY
Law no longer governs outcomes.
Power does.
Risk Level: 🔴 HIGH
GULF LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY ALIGNMENT
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Regulatory frameworks continue aligning with Vision 2030 priorities—industrial diversification, digital transformation, and foreign investment attraction.⁵
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
The UAE is establishing a leading global position in AI governance and digital regulation, embedding technology into state strategy.⁶
🇶🇦 Qatar
Qatar continues advancing infrastructure and digital economy frameworks, though at lower legislative visibility.⁷
MARKET REALITY
The Gulf is not reacting to global capital flows.
It is competing to control them.
HARD REALITY — LIMITS OF LAW

Israeli elections will freeze reform—but not defense spending
• Egyptian reform will attract capital—but execution risk remains real
• Moroccan stability ensures continuity—not acceleration
• Gulf success depends on alignment of law and centralized power
• Lebanon cannot recover through legislation under current conditions

CORE RULE
Law only moves capital when it is enforceable—and backed by power.
POWER VS LAW
In MENA, law does not operate independently.

Israel: Law is constrained by coalition dynamics
• Egypt: Law and executive authority are aligned
• Morocco: Law reinforces institutional continuity
• Gulf States: Law is an extension of centralized strategy
• Lebanon: Law has lost governing authority

IMPLICATION
Legal analysis without power analysis is incomplete.
LEGISLATIVE VELOCITY INDEX

Egypt — High / High / High
Saudi Arabia — High / High / High
UAE — High / High / High
Morocco — Medium / High / Medium-High
Israel — Medium / High / Medium
Jordan — Medium / Medium / Medium
Lebanon — Low / Low / Low

CAPITAL FLOWS
Defense → Israel
Infrastructure → Egypt
Mining → Egypt
Water → Morocco
Technology → Gulf States
This is not a trend.
It is a reallocation.
ACTION FRAMEWORK
🔴 AVOID / LIMIT

Lebanon — systemic failure
Israel (non-defense) — policy uncertainty

🟡 SELECTIVE

Jordan — stable but slow
Sensitive domestic sectors

🟢 TARGET

Egypt — infrastructure, mining, industrials
Morocco — water, infrastructure, renewables
Saudi Arabia / UAE — technology, AI, industrial policy
Israel — defense

Time Horizon
0–12 months: volatility-driven
12–36 months: policy-driven capital concentration
FORCED OUTCOME
If current trajectories hold:

Egypt consolidates as North Africa’s capital hub.³
Morocco deepens its position as a stability premium market.⁴
Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominate technology capital flows.⁶
Israel remains strategically strong but politically constrained.²
Lebanon remains structurally impaired.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE
The system has changed.
Governments are no longer reacting to markets.
They are legislating markets into existence.
The fastest, most enforceable legal systems are capturing disproportionate capital—and that advantage is compounding.
FOOTNOTES

Hassan El Khatib, remarks on investment reform, Daily News Egypt, May 2026.
Sam Sokol and Ariela Karmel, “MKs Advance Bill to Dissolve Knesset,” The Times of Israel, June 2, 2026.
White & Case, “Egypt Set for Major Competition Law Amendments,” May 2026.
“Morocco: New Law Bolsters Governance of Political Parties,” Global Legal Monitor, Library of Congress, May 29, 2026.
“Opportunities in Saudi Arabia’s Technology Market,” Middle East Briefing, 2026.
“The UAE’s AI Governance Strategy,” Atlantic Council, 2026.
“Middle East AI and Data Regulation Overview,” Crowell & Moring, 2026.

JaFaJ MENA Legislative Review – June Read More »

Should The United States Unfreeze Iran’s Assets?

2026-06-03 / JaFaJ

A Strategic, Legal, and Market Power Analysis of Sanctions Leverage
IN A NUTSHELL
Core Question: Should the United States unfreeze Iran’s frozen financial assets?
Key Law: Sanctions authority under U.S. federal law (IEEPA) allows asset freezes as a tool of national security policy.
Reality: Frozen funds are leverage, not punishment; once released, leverage is permanently reduced.
Bottom Line: Funds should not be unfrozen absent phased, verifiable, and enforceable concessions that materially constrain Iran’s nuclear capabilities, eliminate its ability to finance proxy and terrorist activities, and reduce its capacity to threaten regional stability. Any release that fails to meet these conditions risks directly strengthening the behaviors the policy is intended to deter.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The debate over unfreezing Iranian assets is not a financial question; it is a leverage question embedded in geopolitical power dynamics.

Estimates indicate that between $50 billion and $100 billion in Iranian assets remain frozen or restricted across jurisdictions including South Korea, Iraq, and other foreign financial institutions, based on reporting from the U.S. Treasury, Council on Foreign Relations, and international financial disclosures¹; these funds represent one of the largest remaining pools of coercive economic leverage available to U.S. policymakers.
At stake is not simply economic policy, but whether the United States will retain or relinquish one of its most effective non-military tools for constraining nuclear proliferation, limiting state-sponsored terrorism, and maintaining regional deterrence.
Unfreezing assets without strict conditions would represent a unilateral surrender of leverage with no guarantee of behavioral change.
Conditional, phased release tied to independently verified compliance mechanisms could produce measurable strategic gains.
The fungibility of money ensures that even restricted funds indirectly expand Iran’s total spending capacity, including military and proxy activities.
The absence of a supranational enforcement authority means compliance depends on Iran’s incentives, not legal obligation alone.
Markets interpret sanctions relief as a signal, potentially reshaping energy pricing, regional investment flows, and geopolitical risk premiums.
The decision is irreversible at scale: once funds are transferred, they cannot be effectively re-frozen without escalation.
Absent extraordinary, verified, and enforceable concessions that materially degrade Iran’s nuclear trajectory and its capacity to finance proxy activity, the default policy position should be to maintain asset restrictions.

CORE QUESTION
At stake is whether economic leverage should be preserved or converted into negotiated concessions.
The United States must decide whether releasing billions in frozen assets will:

Produce verifiable and durable changes in Iran’s behavior; or
Strengthen Iran economically without materially altering its strategic posture.

This is not a legal compliance question—it is a power allocation decision.
LEGAL FOUNDATION
U.S. Authority
Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. President has broad authority to freeze and unfreeze foreign assets during national emergencies. These powers are discretionary and policy-driven.
International Law Context

No international legal rule requires the U.S. to release frozen assets.
Asset freezes are considered lawful countermeasures under state sovereignty principles.
Iran’s access to funds is therefore contingent on political negotiation, not legal entitlement.

Practical Legal Reality
Law provides the mechanism; power determines the outcome.
There is no enforceable international court mechanism that compels compliance or guarantees behavior post-release.
As the U.S. Department of the Treasury has consistently emphasized in its sanctions guidance, “sanctions are a tool to bring about a change in behavior,” not an end in themselves. This framing reinforces that asset freezes are designed to create leverage for negotiation outcomes rather than to function as permanent economic punishment.
In formal guidance, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has further clarified that sanctions programs are designed to “impose a cost on, and deter, malign behavior,” while preserving flexibility for negotiated relief when policy objectives are met, reinforcing the time-bound and conditional nature of financial restrictions.¹
As the U.S. Department of the Treasury has stated in its sanctions framework, “sanctions are a tool to bring about a change in behavior,” reinforcing that asset freezes are designed to create negotiable leverage rather than to serve as indefinite economic penalties.¹
CASE STUDIES (IRAC FORMAT)
CASE 1: Nuclear Concessions for Asset Access
Issue: Can frozen funds be exchanged for nuclear program restrictions?
Rule: Sanctions relief can be granted in exchange for compliance commitments.
Application: A real-world analogue exists in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which the United States and its partners provided phased sanctions relief, including access to previously restricted Iranian funds, in exchange for uranium enrichment limits, centrifuge reductions, and an intrusive inspection regime administered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While the agreement initially reduced Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile by approximately 98% and extended breakout timelines, subsequent U.S. withdrawal in 2018 and Iran’s phased non-compliance demonstrated the fragility of enforcement once economic benefits were real. This case illustrates that asset access can produce short-term compliance gains, but sustaining those gains requires continuous leverage and credible re-imposition mechanisms; as the International Atomic Energy Agency emphasized, the JCPOA established “the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime,” yet its effectiveness ultimately depended on sustained political alignment and enforcement continuity rather than technical monitoring capability alone.²
Conclusion: Effective only if compliance is continuous, verified, and reversible in structure (though not in funds).
CASE 2: Humanitarian Channel Structuring
Issue: Can funds be restricted to non-military uses?
Rule: Humanitarian exemptions allow funds for food, medicine, and civilian goods.
Application: Even restricted funds free up domestic Iranian capital for alternative uses.
Conclusion: Humanitarian structuring reduces optics risk but does not eliminate strategic risk.
CASE 3: Unconditional Release Scenario
Issue: What happens if funds are released without concessions?
Rule: No legal barrier exists to unconditional release.
Application: Iran gains immediate liquidity with no behavioral obligation.
Conclusion: Represents a unilateral loss of leverage with no enforceable return.
CASE 4: Re-freeze Attempt After Violation
Issue: Can funds be re-frozen after non-compliance?
Rule: New sanctions can be imposed, but previously transferred funds are largely unrecoverable.
Application: Enforcement becomes escalatory (secondary sanctions, military deterrence).
Conclusion: Reversal is structurally weak once funds leave controlled channels.
ENFORCEMENT REALITY CHECK
There is no global enforcement authority capable of compelling Iran to comply once funds are released, a structural limitation widely recognized in international sanctions frameworks and enforcement analyses.⁴

Compliance depends on incentives, not obligation.
Monitoring mechanisms can detect violations but cannot prevent them in real time.
Enforcement becomes reactive and politically costly.

Hard Truth: The system runs on trust backed by threat—not law backed by force.
Historical behavior patterns reinforce this structural limitation. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to adjust compliance in response to shifting incentives while preserving core strategic capabilities, particularly in its nuclear program and regional proxy networks. This pattern suggests that partial or time-bound concessions are unlikely to produce permanent behavioral change absent sustained and credible leverage.
MARKET + ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Energy Markets

Sanctions relief combined with access to frozen financial assets could enable Iran to increase oil exports by an estimated 0.5 to 1.5 million barrels per day within 6–18 months, depending on infrastructure readiness and sanctions enforcement consistency.
• This supply increase would likely exert downward pressure on global oil prices in the range of $5–$15 per barrel in the short term, particularly in oversupplied market conditions, while increasing volatility if enforcement credibility weakens over time.
• Historical patterns following prior sanctions relief periods demonstrate that Iran prioritizes rapid production normalization to capture market share, reinforcing the speed at which financial liquidity converts into geopolitical and market impact³. As noted in global energy market analysis, “Iran has consistently demonstrated an ability to rapidly restore oil production following sanctions relief,” underscoring the direct linkage between financial access and market influence.³

Capital Flows

Regional investment risk may decline temporarily if tensions ease.
However, long-term uncertainty remains due to enforcement fragility.

Strategic Capital Allocation

Iran can redirect domestic funds toward military modernization or proxy financing.
Financial flexibility—not just raw capital—is the key gain.

POWER ANALYSIS
This decision is fundamentally about leverage asymmetry.

Current State: U.S. holds economic leverage via frozen assets.
Post-Unfreezing: Leverage shifts toward Iran unless tied to strict compliance triggers.
In practical terms, this shift in leverage translates into increased financial capacity for nuclear development, expanded support for proxy and terrorist networks, and a heightened ability to exert coercive pressure across the region.

Irreversibility Principle:
Once leverage is converted into liquidity, it cannot be fully reconstructed without escalation.
SYSTEM ACTORS AND INCENTIVE STRUCTURE

United States: Seeks to convert financial leverage into nuclear compliance and regional de-escalation while maintaining credibility of sanctions as a long-term policy tool.
Iran: Seeks immediate liquidity relief, sanctions erosion, and strategic flexibility while minimizing irreversible concessions on nuclear capability and regional influence.
China: Functions as a primary downstream purchaser of Iranian oil and has a structural incentive to weaken U.S. sanctions enforcement by maintaining energy flows at discounted rates.
European Union: Balances non-proliferation objectives with economic interests, often acting as a stabilizing intermediary but with limited independent enforcement capacity.
Regional Actors (Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gulf States): Evaluate sanctions relief through a security lens, with high sensitivity to shifts in Iran’s financial capacity to fund proxy networks and military expansion.

System Reality: The effectiveness of any asset release framework is not determined solely by U.S.–Iran compliance dynamics, but by the alignment—or misalignment—of these actors’ incentives, particularly in energy markets and sanctions enforcement.
RISK MATRIX
Legal Risk:
Low. The U.S. has clear authority to act.
Operational Risk:
High. Monitoring compliance is complex and imperfect.
Financial Risk:
High. Funds may indirectly support adversarial activities.
Political Risk:
Very high. Domestic and international backlash likely if outcomes fail.
Strategic Risk:
Critical. Loss of leverage without gain in compliance undermines long-term positioning.

TITLE
POST-UNFREEZING RISK PROFILE (COMPRESSED VIEW)
CONTENT (STRUCTURE THIS AS A CLEAN GRID)

RISK TYPE
PRE-UNFREEZE
POST-UNFREEZE
REVERSIBILITY

Legal
Low
Low
High

Operational
Medium
High
Low

Financial
Medium
High
Very Low

Political
Medium
Very High
Low

Strategic
High (Controlled)
Critical (Uncontrolled)
None

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Short-Term (0–2 Years)
Conditional agreements may reduce immediate tensions but require constant monitoring.
Mid-Term (2–5 Years)
Risk of gradual non-compliance increases as incentives weaken.
Long-Term (5+ Years)
Leverage erosion becomes permanent if funds are fully released without structural safeguards.
FINAL TAKEAWAYS

Frozen assets are a strategic tool, not a moral judgment mechanism.
Unconditional release is not simply a loss of leverage—it is a direct transfer of strategic capacity to a state actively pursuing nuclear advancement and supporting proxy and terrorist networks.
Conditional, phased release tied to verified compliance offers the only rational pathway.
The fungibility of money ensures that any funds released, regardless of stated purpose, expand Iran’s total capacity to finance military activity, proxy operations, and regional coercion.
Enforcement mechanisms are structurally weak at the international level.
The decision is largely irreversible once funds are transferred.
Market impacts are secondary to geopolitical consequences.
The optimal strategy preserves leverage while extracting measurable concessions.

CONCLUSION
The decision to unfreeze Iran’s assets is not a symbolic act of diplomacy; it is a direct transfer of economic power that will produce predictable strategic outcomes.
Unconditional or weakly conditioned asset releases will increase Iran’s financial flexibility, accelerate its ability to project regional influence, and reduce the effectiveness of future sanctions as a coercive tool.

These risks are not abstract. Iran’s continued advancement toward nuclear capability, its documented support for proxy and terrorist networks, and its pattern of regional coercion mean that any increase in financial capacity has direct security implications. Expanding liquidity without structural constraints does not occur in a vacuum—it increases the probability that additional resources will be available to accelerate nuclear development, sustain proxy operations, and intensify pressure on neighboring states. In this context, financial access is not neutral; it is a force multiplier.
These outcomes are not speculative—they follow directly from the fungibility of capital and the absence of enforceable international compliance mechanisms.
Conditional, phased release structures tied to continuous verification can produce limited, time-bound compliance gains, but only so long as meaningful leverage remains intact and enforcement credibility is preserved across all major actors in the system.
Once large-scale financial assets are transferred, the United States loses the ability to fully reconstruct that leverage without escalation. This creates a one-directional risk profile in which the downside is permanent and the upside is contingent.
Bottom Line: The United States should only exchange frozen assets for outcomes that are measurable, continuously verifiable, and strategically significant—and should assume that any leverage surrendered will not be recoverable. In a system defined by irreversible decisions and adversarial incentives, preserving financial leverage is not only an economic choice—it is a core requirement for preventing nuclear escalation, constraining state-sponsored terrorism, and maintaining credible deterrence.

FOOTNOTES

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Sanctions Programs and Iranian Assets Reports (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of the Treasury); Council on Foreign Relations, “What Are Iran’s Frozen Assets?”; Reuters, “Where Iran’s Frozen Funds Are Held and How Much Is at Stake.”
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran under the JCPOA (Vienna: IAEA, 2016); Arms Control Association, “The Iran Nuclear Deal: Key Details.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran Oil Exports and Production Capacity Reports (Washington, DC: EIA); International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Reports (Paris: IEA); Bloomberg, historical sanctions impact analysis.
Council on Foreign Relations, “Sanctions and Enforcement Limitations in International Systems”; United Nations Security Council, enforcement structure analyses and limitations.

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How Jordan Is Saving the Muslim Brotherhood, Evading US Pressure

2026-05-31 / JaFaJ

SUMMARY:
1. On January 13, 2026, pursuant to President Trump’s Executive Order, the U.S. Departments of State and Treasury announced the designation of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) chapters in Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon as terrorist organizations. Treasury concurrently designated the Jordanian and Egyptian chapters as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) for providing support to Hamas.
2. JAFAJ has learned that King Abdullah II is likely to pursue a strategy of formal compliance coupled with operational continuity in response to the designation. The Government of Jordan (GOJ) may seek to preserve core Muslim Brotherhood capabilities while projecting adherence to U.S. requirements through limited legal and administrative measures.
3. The GOJ may seek to dissolve or marginalize specific legal entities associated with the Muslim Brotherhood while permitting successor organizations to retain leadership structures, assets, personnel, and operational functions under alternative legal identities. Such measures would likely be intended to demonstrate compliance without fundamentally dismantling the organization’s political, financial, or media infrastructure.
4. The Islamic Action Front (IAF), the Brotherhood’s principal political vehicle in Jordan, is expected to remain the primary mechanism through which the organization maintains political influence, public outreach, and mobilization capabilities. Any formal closure of the IAF could be accompanied by efforts to facilitate its reconstitution under a different legal framework or organizational name.
5. The GOJ is likely to preserve the operational capacity of the Islamic Center Charity Society (ICCS), which remains a key component of the Brotherhood’s financial infrastructure. Measures publicly presented as asset freezes or administrative interventions may not necessarily result in the permanent dismantlement of the organization’s financial networks, revenue streams, or personnel structure.
6. MB-affiliated media outlets, including Al-Sabeel, may continue to operate under existing or modified arrangements, thereby preserving the organization’s ability to disseminate messaging, maintain public engagement, and coordinate political activity.
7. JAFAJ has learned that the GOJ may employ limited enforcement measures, including short-term detentions or administrative actions against selected MB figures, in an effort to demonstrate cooperation with U.S. counterterrorism objectives while minimizing disruption to the organization’s broader structure and leadership network. Such measures would be designed to balance U.S. pressure with the regime’s longstanding management of relations with the Muslim Brotherhood.
8. Reporting indicates that Jordanian security officials advised MB leaders to reduce their public profile and avoid actions that could attract additional scrutiny during the current period of U.S. pressure. Both the GOJ and MB leadership appear to calculate that the organization can withstand the designation period without incurring significant long-term institutional costs.
9. The United States possesses sufficient diplomatic, financial, and legal leverage to secure more substantive action, provided such leverage is tied to clear, measurable, and verifiable compliance benchmarks. Absent sustained pressure, the GOJ may continue to rely on public announcements and limited administrative measures rather than undertake steps that would fundamentally dismantle MB political, financial, and media structures.
10. Any U.S. policy response should emphasize verifiable outcomes rather than public declarations, with particular focus on organizational continuity, successor entities, financial infrastructure, media operations, and leadership networks. End Summary.
11. The Islamic Center Charity Society (ICCS) continued to operate even during periods of direct government administration. Thousands of individuals affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood reportedly retained their positions and continued receiving salaries. JAFAJ has learned that the Palace may employ a similar approach in response to the current designation, publicly portraying the organization as subject to government control while allowing its underlying financial and administrative networks to remain largely intact. Such a course of action could be justified by reference to official statements asserting that the Muslim Brotherhood has already been banned and that no additional measures are required.
12. MEDIA CAPABILITY THROUGH AL-SABEEL: Al-Sabeel remains a significant platform for Muslim Brotherhood messaging and outreach. Reporting indicates that the outlet has historically been linked to Brotherhood networks and continues to operate despite claims that measures were taken against it in 2025. JAFAJ has learned that the continued operation of Al-Sabeel may form part of a broader effort to preserve the Brotherhood’s media capabilities while demonstrating limited compliance with external pressure. The outlet’s continued online presence suggests that any previous restrictions have not materially disrupted its operations.
13. THE PALACE AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: HISTORICAL INTERDEPENDENCE. The relationship between the Hashemite monarchy and the Muslim Brotherhood has historically been characterized by mutual accommodation. The Brotherhood has often served as a stabilizing political actor during periods of domestic unrest, while the Palace has allowed the movement to maintain a degree of political and social influence unavailable to many other opposition currents. During periods of heightened political tension, Brotherhood leaders have generally advocated reform within the existing political system rather than direct confrontation with the monarchy.
14. PALESTINIAN DEMOGRAPHICS AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. The Government of Jordan has frequently cited the country’s large Palestinian-origin population when explaining the influence and endurance of Islamist movements. JAFAJ has learned, however, that many Jordanians of Palestinian origin prioritize civil rights, economic opportunity, and integration within Jordan over ideological Islamist objectives. While the Muslim Brotherhood continues to emphasize issues related to Palestine and the right of return, available reporting suggests that these themes alone do not fully explain the movement’s continued political relevance. Other political, institutional, and historical factors appear to contribute significantly to its position within Jordanian society.
15. ACCESS TO THE ROYAL COURT. JAFAJ has learned that senior Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas figures have maintained access to the Royal Court over an extended period. Such access has generally not been extended to many secular or moderate opposition figures. Reporting indicates that contacts between Palace officials and senior Islamist figures have remained a recurring feature of Jordan’s political landscape. Hamas was originally established in 1987 as the Palestinian branch of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, and public reporting has documented multiple meetings involving senior Hamas officials, including Khaled Mashal, and members of the Jordanian leadership.
Among the Islamist figures received by senior officials has been Dima Tahboub, a prominent Islamic Action Front (IAF) figure. Public reporting has highlighted statements attributed to Tahboub that generated controversy internationally and prompted efforts by some activists to oppose her participation in events abroad.
16. THE SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT AND REGIONAL ISLAMIST NETWORKS. King Abdullah exercises authority primarily through the Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate (GID), the state’s principal intelligence and security institution. The GID reports directly to the Palace and operates with broad authorities, making it one of the most influential institutions within the Jordanian political system.
17. Public reporting has linked elements of the Jordanian security apparatus to the diversion of weapons originally intended for Syrian opposition groups during the Syrian conflict. According to these reports, some weapons entered regional black markets and were subsequently acquired by extremist organizations, including ISIS.
18. Separate reporting alleged that ammunition originating from a Jordan-based military training program was diverted and later surfaced in the possession of ISIS-linked elements in Syria. JAFAJ has learned that these incidents continue to raise questions among observers regarding oversight, accountability, and control mechanisms within Jordan’s security sector. No major public investigations or prosecutions connected to these allegations have been widely reported.
19. The Muslim Brotherhood continues to operate openly in Jordanian political and social life despite periodic government restrictions. JAFAJ has learned that Brotherhood messaging frequently includes rhetoric directed against the United States, Israel, and Western policies in the region. Critics argue that such messaging contributes to political radicalization and anti-Western sentiment, while the authorities have generally permitted the organization to maintain a public presence.
20. THE CROWN PRINCE AND ISLAMIST OUTREACH. Crown Prince Hussein has on several occasions participated in public events involving individuals associated with Islamist movements. Observers have interpreted some of these appearances as signals of continued engagement between elements of the Hashemite establishment and Islamist constituencies.
21. Additional public commentary has described the Muslim Brotherhood as maintaining a longstanding relationship with the Jordanian political establishment. Such characterizations have periodically appeared in Jordanian and regional political discourse and reflect a broader perception of accommodation between the monarchy and the movement.
22. KEY MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD LEADERSHIP FIGURES. JAFAJ has learned that the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood functions through both an internal organizational leadership structure and a public political arm represented by the Islamic Action Front. Real decision-making authority appears concentrated among a relatively small group of senior figures whose influence may not always correspond to their public visibility.• Among the individuals most frequently identified in reporting as influential within the movement are:
• Murad al-Adailah, General Controller and principal organizational authority.
• Hammam Saeed, former General Controller and senior ideological figure.
• Abdullah al-Akayleh, senior leader and former parliamentarian with longstanding ties to state institutions.
• Zaki Bani Irshid, former Deputy General Controller and prominent political spokesman.
• Wael al-Saqqa, Secretary-General of the Islamic Action Front.
• Saleh al-Armouti, senior IAF figure, lawyer, and former parliamentarian.
• Yanal Freihat, activist and media figure associated with the movement.
• Dima Tahboub, Islamic Action Front politician whose public statements have generated international controversy.
23. POLICY OPTIONS. JAFAJ has learned that U.S. authorities retain multiple legal, financial, and diplomatic tools that could be employed to increase pressure on Muslim Brotherhood networks operating in Jordan. These measures could be implemented independently or as part of a broader conditionality framework linked to Jordanian compliance with U.S. counterterrorism objectives.
24. One option would be the designation of senior Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood figures under applicable U.S. counterterrorism authorities associated with the November 24, 2025, Executive Order. Such measures could target individuals assessed to play central leadership, financial, operational, or organizational roles within the movement.
25. A second option would be the designation of the Islamic Action Front (IAF) as an affiliate or political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. Proponents of this approach argue that the IAF serves as the Brotherhood’s principal vehicle for political participation, public messaging, and institutional influence within Jordan.
26. Additional measures could target the Islamic Center Charity Society (ICCS) and affiliated entities identified as key components of the Brotherhood’s financial infrastructure. Such actions could include sanctions, asset freezes, or other financial restrictions permitted under U.S. law.
27. COMPLIANCE BENCHMARKS. JAFAJ has learned that any assessment of Jordanian compliance would require objective and verifiable indicators rather than reliance on public statements or administrative announcements. Potential benchmarks could include:
(a) Verified closure and de-licensing of the Islamic Action Front Party, cessation of party operations, confiscation of organizational assets, freezing of financial accounts, and measures preventing the re-establishment of substantially identical successor entities.
(b) Verified dismantlement, receivership, or asset freezes affecting the Islamic Center Charity Society and affiliated holdings, including the removal of Muslim Brotherhood personnel from positions of operational control.
(c) Verified cessation of Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated media operations, including the termination of Al-Sabeel’s activities and the disruption of its financial, administrative, and operational infrastructure.
(d) Verified disruption of senior Muslim Brotherhood command-and-control structures through sustained legal and administrative action rather than temporary or symbolic measures.
(e) Verification that the Muslim Brotherhood Association and any successor organizations are not continuing operations under alternative legal names, structures, or organizational fronts.
COMMENT: Supporters of this approach argue that such measures are available under existing Jordanian legal authorities, including counterterrorism, electronic crimes, and public security legislation. They further contend that meaningful compliance should be evaluated on the basis of demonstrable organizational disruption rather than formal declarations alone. END COMMENT.
28. CONDITIONALITY AND DIPLOMATIC LEVERAGE. JAFAJ has learned that compliance could be encouraged through a phased conditionality framework linking specified categories of U.S. assistance to measurable benchmarks and implementation timelines.
Potential measures could include:
(a) Establishing a graduated assistance framework under which designated categories of aid would be suspended or delayed if compliance benchmarks are not met within specified timeframes.
(b) Imposing escalatory measures, including visa restrictions, financial sanctions, or procurement limitations, against individuals determined to be facilitating the continued operation of designated Muslim Brotherhood networks.
(c) Communicating clearly that organizational rebranding, nominal dissolutions, temporary suspensions, or short-term detentions would not, by themselves, constitute sufficient evidence of compliance.
29. COMMENT. The effectiveness of any future U.S. approach is likely to depend on the degree to which compliance requirements remain measurable, verifiable, and linked to sustained implementation. Public announcements alone are unlikely to provide a reliable indicator of institutional change absent corresponding evidence of organizational, financial, and operational disruption.
END COMMENT.

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From Fragmentation To Fusion: The A.M.A.N. Master Doctrine

2026-05-24 / JaFaJ

A FULL-SPECTRUM SYSTEM FOR MENA POWER, SECURITY, AND CAPITAL INTEGRATION
IN A NUTSHELL

MENA defines the region: ~20+ countries, ~500+ million people, ~$4–5 trillion GDP
OPEC controls ~35–40% of global oil supply and ~70–80% of proven reserves
The Abraham Accords connect capital, technology, and security across key states
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 57 countries and ~1.9 billion people (~24% of global population)

A.M.A.N. integrates identity, money, alignment, and legitimacy into a single operational system
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Middle East is not one system—it is four overlapping structures:

Geographic (MENA)
Resource (OPEC)
Alignment (Abraham Accords)
Legitimacy (OIC)

These systems:

Share territory but not governance
Share interests but not coordination
Share threats but not enforcement

Yet convergence is already underway:

Gulf sovereign wealth funds exceed $3–4 trillion
Regional infrastructure pipelines exceed $1 trillion in planned projects
Trade corridors linking Asia–Europe through MENA could shift $2–4 trillion in trade flows annually (long-term projection)

Conclusion:
Integration is not theoretical—it is economically and strategically incentivized.
THE PROBLEM: FOUR SYSTEMS, FOUR LIMITS (EXPANDED)

MENA (Geographic System)

Covers ~20+ countries across North Africa and the Middle East
No unified military, trade, or regulatory system
Political fragmentation across monarchies, republics, and fragile states

OPEC (Energy System)

Produces ~30–40 million barrels/day
Influences global oil prices directly
Limited to energy—no security or political integration

Abraham Accords (Alignment System)

Enabled billions in trade growth (Israel–UAE trade alone >$2–3B annually post-normalization)
Driven by U.S. security guarantees and Gulf capital
Still excludes key regional players

OIC (Legitimacy System)

Represents ~1.9B Muslims globally
No enforcement authority
Internal divisions (Sunni vs Shia, Arab vs non-Arab)

👉 Each system solves one dimension—none solve all.
THE SOLUTION: A STACKED SYSTEM (WITH SCALE)
A.M.A.N. organizes these into three operational layers:
LAYER 1 — HARD POWER (SECURITY CORE)
Core states:

Israel (tech + missile defense leader)
Saudi Arabia (~$75B+ annual defense spending)
United Arab Emirates (advanced air/naval systems)
Egypt (~450,000+ active military personnel)

Capabilities built:

Integrated missile defense (countering thousands of regional missile/drone threats annually)
Intelligence fusion (SIGINT, HUMINT, cyber)
Maritime control of:

Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil passes daily)
Red Sea / Suez (~12% of global trade flows)

Counterterrorism coordination across borders

👉 Creates the region’s first functional collective defense system
LAYER 2 — CAPITAL + ENERGY (ECONOMIC CORE)
Financial backbone:

Saudi Public Investment Fund: ~$700B+
UAE sovereign funds: ~$1 trillion+ combined
Qatar Investment Authority: ~$450B+

Functions:

Coordinated oil output (influencing a $2–3 trillion global energy market)
Infrastructure investment:

Ports, rail, pipelines
Smart cities and logistics hubs

Trade corridor expansion:

India–Middle East–Europe corridor
Africa–Gulf integration

👉 Converts energy wealth into multi-sector geopolitical dominance
LAYER 3 — LEGITIMACY (OIC LAYER)
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation:

Represents ~25% of global population
Covers four continents
Influences domestic political narratives in member states

Functions:

Religious validation of normalization policies
Political cover for controversial alliances
Narrative control across Muslim populations

👉 Enables actions that would otherwise trigger mass political backlash
THE FINANCIAL BREAKTHROUGH (WITH NUMBERS)
CURRENT MODEL (INEFFICIENT)

U.S. defense budget: ~$850B annually
Estimated Middle East burden: $70–120B/year

A.M.A.N. MODEL (NATO-STYLE)
Using 2–3% GDP contributions:

Combined GDP of core states: ~$3–4 trillion
2% → ~$60B/year
3% → ~$90–100B/year

WHAT THIS FUNDS

Regional missile shield: $20–30B build cost
Maritime security grid: $10–15B annually
Cyber/intelligence systems: $5–10B annually
Infrastructure corridors: $30–50B+ co-invested

U.S. SAVINGS IMPACT (STRATEGIC SHIFT)

Direct savings: $30–60B/year
Indirect savings: $20–40B/year

TOTAL: $50–100 BILLION ANNUALLY
👉 The United States transitions from:

Primary payer → strategic overseer

DECISION MODEL
Each state evaluates:

Security: Are threats reduced?
Economics: Is GDP growth increased?
Stability: Does regime risk decrease?
Ideology: Is backlash manageable?

DECISION CASCADE (WITH REAL EFFECTS)

Saudi Arabia aligns → unlocks energy + legitimacy
United Arab Emirates deploys capital → funds system
Smaller states become dependent → security + trade reliance
Organization of Islamic Cooperation legitimizes → reduces backlash
Late adopters join → avoid economic exclusion

👉 Network effects drive expansion
TRIGGER EVENTS (WITH IMPACT SCALE)

War involving Iran → immediate multi-billion defense coordination
Oil shock → $100B+ revenue swings forcing alignment
U.S. retrenchment → security vacuum across 20+ states

FORMATION TIMELINE (REALISTIC)

0–2 years: intelligence sharing + pilot projects
3–5 years: joint defense + energy coordination
5–10 years: full institutional system

INTERNAL SECURITY DOCTRINE
THE CORE DIVISION
The region includes:

State-led regimes
Political Islam networks (e.g., Muslim Brotherhood)
Violent extremist organizations

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Tier 1 — States

Full sovereignty protection
Security integration

Tier 2 — Political Movements

Conditional legitimacy
Must meet:

Non-violence
No cross-border destabilization
Recognition of state authority

Tier 3 — Terrorist Organizations

Zero tolerance policy
Joint targeting across borders
Financial system shutdown

👉 Creates first region-wide counterterrorism regime
JOINT COUNTERTERRORISM COMMAND
Capabilities:

Intelligence sharing across 10+ major security services
Financial tracking of billions in illicit flows
Cyber monitoring of recruitment networks
Rapid-response deployment forces

INTERNAL STABILITY RULE
No member state may support destabilizing actors in another state.
Impact:

Reduces proxy wars
Limits ideological export
Stabilizes regimes

WINNERS AND LOSERS (WITH SCALE)
Winners

Saudi Arabia → controls energy + leadership
United Arab Emirates → financial/logistics dominance
Israel → technology + defense integration
United States → saves up to $100B/year

Losers

Iran → containment pressure
Fragile states → excluded from $100B+ capital flows

FINAL SYSTEM OUTCOME
A.M.A.N. becomes:

A $100B+ annual security system
A multi-trillion-dollar economic bloc
A region-wide counterterrorism architecture
A managed ideological environment

FINAL STRATEGIC CONCLUSION
This is not about unity.
It is about building a system where:

Security is pooled
Costs are shared
Capital is leveraged
Legitimacy is engineered
Instability is controlled

FINAL THOUGHT
A.M.A.N. does not eliminate conflict—it organizes it, controls it, and prevents it from becoming system-breaking.
REFERENCES

Organization of Islamic Cooperation. OIC Charter and Institutional Overview.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Annual Statistical Bulletin.
U.S. Department of State. The Abraham Accords Declaration, 2020.
International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Database.
World Bank. MENA Economic Update.
JaFaJ Strategic Markets Desk. System Integration Analysis.

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