byGERALD BUTT
12 AUGUST 2022

Tunisia is the latest nation to discard the democratic process. Western leaders must decide how to respond, says Gerald Butt

 
WESTERN leaders who are advocating wholesale changes in Arab political systems should be careful what they wish for. In 2003, the Bush administration was confident that the overthrow of President Saddam Hussein would herald the introduction of liberal democracy in Iraq. A domino effect would then flip the new system into neighbouring Arab states, and thus transform the Middle East’s political map.
The problem was that Iraq, after years of dictatorship, lacked the tools to create a workable and credible liberal democracy. Also, Iraqis were in no mood to be told what to do by invading armies. As The Economist recently pointed out, “the desert wars demonstrated that you cannot turn people into liberals by firing guns at them.”
Home-grown efforts to effect democratic change have been similarly unsuccessful. The only domino effect resulting from the 2011 Arab Spring popular uprisings, which forced several autocrats out of power, has been a relentless return to autocracy.
For example, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was ousted in 2011. But, eight years later, at a G7 summit in France, President Trump turned the heads of Egyptian and American officials when he greeted Mubarak’s successor, President Abdel Fattah el Sisi, by exclaiming “Where’s my favourite dictator?” All the signs are that US Presidents will have an expanding pool from which to choose their preferred autocrats in the years ahead.
TUNISIA, the sole state that appeared to have emerged successfully from the chaos of the Arab Spring, is the latest nation to discard the democratic progress of the past few years.
A late-July referendum approved changes to the constitution, transferring the reins of power from parliament into the hands of President Kais Saied. Ennahda, an Islamist party inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, had played a significant part in creating what, for a time, appeared to be fertile ground for Tunisian democracy to grow. But opponents of Ennahda, not least President Saied himself, accused the party of corruption and incompetence in tackling worsening economic conditions.

Western governments and human-rights groups have expressed dismay at these developments. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that there had been insufficient public debate before the referendum, at which voter turnout did not exceed 30 per cent. The UK Government concurred, saying that civil-society organisations, trade unions, and the media should have been consulted. Amnesty International said that it was “deeply worrying that Tunisia has adopted a new resolution that undermines human rights . . . and fundamental freedoms”.
But that is not the view of all Tunisians themselves. The former Archbishop of Alexandria, Dr Mouneer Anis, said: “Our congregation are very happy with the new constitution because it affirms freedom of belief. It also states that Tunisia is a secular country, not an Islamic one. The implication of this is great for the Christian community in Tunisia. Many people are supportive of the President because he is fighting corruption and restricting the tyranny of the Muslim Brotherhood, who previously controlled the parliament.”
Across the Arab Middle East, from the Atlantic coast to the Gulf, the dictators’ grip is tightening; but Dr Anis says that, “while autocratic rule is hard, it’s better than extreme Islamic rule where Christians would be treated as second-class citizens.”
IN SEEKING to become autocrats, Arab leaders are, without doubt, motivated by vanity and a desire to act as they please in pursuit of their goals, without the need to convince opponents of their case. As Anwar Sadat said, two decades before becoming President of Egypt: “What may be achieved ‘democratically’ in a year can be achieved ‘dictatorially’ in a day.”
Again, this is a point that appears to enjoy a measure of public support among Arabs. A recent poll conducted by Princeton University reveals that a majority of people in Tunisia, Sudan, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, and the Palestinian territories say that their economies are weak under democratic systems.
They are happy to see their leaders bend the rules to get things done — if the alternative is the kind of political infighting among corrupt and powerful cliques which is seen in states such as Iraq and Lebanon, where there is a skein of parliamentary democracy. For example, Iraqis voted in elections last October, and still await the formation of a government amid intense intra-Shia struggles for power.
Given the surge of populism which is starting to erode the roots of the West’s most entrenched democratic systems, this is an inauspicious time to be pressing the merits of liberal democracy in the region.

Meanwhile, John Bolton says Biden wants to conclude agreement with Iran at any cost, and Tunisian MP who accused President Saied of receiving foreign funds sentenced to four years in prison

An Egyptian soldier walks away during an organised tour for diplomats to mark the 150th anniversary of the inauguration of the Suez Canal, in the northeastern city of Ismailia, on 17 November 2019 (AFP)
By  
Mohammad Ayesh

Published date: 12 August 2022 17:16 – – The Middleeasteye.net

IS members besiege facilities near Egypt’s Suez Canal
Armed groups affiliated with the Islamic State group appeared in the western regions of Egypt’s North Sinai governorate on Thursday and have besieged vital areas in the city of Qantara, only a few kilometres from the Suez Canal, according to a news report.
The report by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper cited tribal sources and eyewitnesses as saying that members of the armed group, affiliated with the Sinai Province offshoot of IS, besieged the power generators in Qantara.
“Members of the terrorist organisation also surrounded the railway area in Qantara and prevented the movement of citizens in those areas,” the report said.
The sources pointed out that police and army forces moved around the area targeted by IS but were forced at a later time to seek the assistance of tribal groups to pursue the members and isolate them.
The Suez Canal and the surrounding area were subjected to a number of militant attacks in the past, the most recent of which was the firing of anti-armour shells at a Panama-flag ship as it was sailing through the canal in 2013. The attack did not affect the work of the canal.

In May, IS members attacked a central water station near the Suez Canal, killing 16 members of the military force guarding it.
Tunisia MP sentenced to four years in prison
A Tunisian court on Thursday sentenced former MP Rached Khiari to two years in prison while he is still being prosecuted in other cases on charges including “conspiring against the internal state security”, according to Arabi21.
Khiari disappeared from public view for more than a year, after the issuance of a warrant for his arrest after he accused President Kais Saied of espionage with foreign parties and receiving funds from US intelligence.
The Tunisian presidency denies the accusations there are political reasons behind the prosecution of Khiari and other politicians. The country has been experiencing a severe crisis since Saied’s power grab on 25 July 2021.
Last week the Public Prosecution issued two arrest warrants against Khiari in connection with two prison terms totalling four years, of which a two-year sentence was issued by the military court and two years by the court of the first instance.
Khiari is charged with “doing what could weaken the spirit of the military system in the army, such as obedience to the commanders or the due respect, and criticising the actions of the General Command or those responsible for the actions of the army in a way that affects their dignity”.
The charges also include: “Intentionally participating in an act aimed at weakening the morale of the army or the nation with an intention to damage national defence and conspiracy against the internal security of the State, intended to replace the State system or to force the population to attack each other with arms, and making contacts with foreign state agents aimed at damaging the military situation of the Tunisian country”.

John Bolton: Biden wants to conclude deal with Iran at any cost
Former US national security adviser John Bolton said that President Joe Biden’s administration was late in announcing the plan to assassinate him by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard due to nuclear negotiations with Tehran in Vienna.
“The announcement of the plan appears to have been frozen due to the ongoing negotiations to reactivate the nuclear deal,” Bolton said in an interview with the Saudi Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
“I think Biden’s administration will do anything to get back to the nuclear deal. This is what was unfortunately expected for a long time”.
Bolton added that “decisions of this kind about the timing of the announcement of certain activities are usually made in cooperation between the Department of Justice and the National Security Council”.
“I think that the main foreign policy goal of Biden’s administration is to reactivate the nuclear agreement with Iran. It is a goal that transcends all other goals at the level of foreign policy. That is why the issuance of the official accusation in the case of the assassination plot was delayed,” he said.
Bolton strongly criticised the US administration’s Iran policy. He commented on the lifting of the IRGC from US terrorism lists by saying: “This reflects the lack of realism in the administration’s Iran policy; the administration could be able to separate nuclear negotiations from Iran’s attempts to kill Americans within the US, but Tehran does not separate these files from each other”.
“The Iranian regime believes that the nuclear weapons programme and its terrorist capabilities are two sides of the same coin. It considers them as tools of the Islamic Revolution against the Great Satan,” Bolton added.

The former national security adviser continued: “I have no doubt that the administration will continue to beg Iran to reactivate the nuclear deal, and this is a grave mistake for the United States along with its friends and allies in the Middle East”.
Bolton said Biden’s policy “sends a message of weakness to Iran, and Tehran is taking advantage of this. And we heard leaks that the administration suggested to Iran that if it is committed to stopping the killing of Americans, this might be a basis for lifting the ‘Revolutionary Guards’ from the terrorist lists”.
*Arabic press review is a digest of news reports not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye.